Tennis · M15 Maanshan · 28/08, 05:30
Prediction: Chase Ferguson vs Fumin Jiang
Team pages: Chase Ferguson · Fumin Jiang
Prediction summary
Winner
Chase Ferguson
Fumin Jiang
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Chase Ferguson
6-4 (W-L)
Fumin Jiang
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Chase Ferguson
2–0
Fumin Jiang
(2 last)
- 09 Sept2-1 15-11W
- 04 Sept2-1 17-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chase Ferguson 1544 · Fumin Jiang 1464
| Chase Ferguson | Fumin Jiang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chase Ferguson (rating 1544 vs 1464).
- Head-to-head: Chase Ferguson 2–0 Fumin Jiang (2).
- Note: Fumin Jiang makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Chase Ferguson | Fumin Jiang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 0.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-10.9 | 8.6-10.3 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 3 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 65.2% |
| Break % | 37.4% | 39.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
H2H · Chase Ferguson 2 – 0 Fumin Jiang (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chase Ferguson 2–0 Fumin Jiang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/25 M15 Maanshan | 2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 04/09/25 M15 Maanshan | 2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chase Ferguson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Hanyi Liu M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Yua Taka M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/08 | Yunseong Chung M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Duje Markovina M15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Derek Pham M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Jake Delaney M25 Brisbane |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 16/07 | Mustafa Ege Sik M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Yuki Mochizuki M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Fitriadi M Rifqi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Yuta Tomida M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Fumin Jiang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Qian Sun M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 26/08 | Dong Ju Kim M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/08 | Isaac Becroft M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Jaesung Choe M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Kerem Yilmaz M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Ammar Faleh Alhogbani M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Roman Sancilio M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/05 | Yaojie Zeng M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/05 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Islamabad · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Matas Vasiliauskas M15 Islamabad · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chase Ferguson vs Fumin Jiang?
Our model gives 72% to Chase Ferguson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.