Tennis · WTA Monterrey · 24/08, 19:00
Prediction: Lilli Tagger vs Yulia Starodubtsewa
Team pages: Lilli Tagger · Yulia Starodubtsewa
Prediction summary
Winner
Lilli Tagger
Yulia Starodubtsewa
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Lilli Tagger
7-3 (W-L)
Yulia Starodubtsewa
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lilli Tagger
0–1
Yulia Starodubtsewa
(1 last)
- 04 Jan0-2 2-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lilli Tagger 1576 · Yulia Starodubtsewa 1454
| Lilli Tagger | Yulia Starodubtsewa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lilli Tagger (rating 1576 vs 1454).
- Lilli Tagger is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Lilli Tagger 0–1 Yulia Starodubtsewa (1).
Statistics
| Lilli Tagger | Yulia Starodubtsewa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-8.8 | 12.5-14.2 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 56.4% |
| Break % | 50.1% | 39% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Lilli Tagger 0 – 1 Yulia Starodubtsewa (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lilli Tagger 0–1 Yulia Starodubtsewa
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/26 WTA Auckland | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lilli Tagger
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Robin Montgomery WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/08 | Lin Zhu WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 26/07 | Daria Snigur WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/07 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 24/07 | Sara Bejlek WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Mai Hontama WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Xinyu Gao WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Sara Bejlek WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Marianne Argyrokastriti WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Yulia Starodubtsewa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Daria Snigur WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Maya Joint WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Sloane Stephens WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Maya Joint WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/05 | Xiyu Wang French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Elena Rybakina French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/05 | Anna Blinkova French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lilli Tagger vs Yulia Starodubtsewa?
Our model gives 68% to Lilli Tagger, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.