Tennis · WTA Monterrey · 28/08, 05:00
Prediction: Yulia Starodubtsewa vs Elise Mertens
Team pages: Yulia Starodubtsewa · Elise Mertens
Prediction summary
Winner
Yulia Starodubtsewa
Elise Mertens
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Yulia Starodubtsewa
4-6 (W-L)
Elise Mertens
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yulia Starodubtsewa 1464 · Elise Mertens 1538
| Yulia Starodubtsewa | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elise Mertens (rating 1464 vs 1538).
- Elise Mertens is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (6.2/match).
Statistics
| Yulia Starodubtsewa | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 25% (4) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.5 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-13.9 | 10.9-10.5 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 6.2 |
| 1st serve % | 56.2% | 69% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 50.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yulia Starodubtsewa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Lilli Tagger WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Daria Snigur WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Maya Joint WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Sloane Stephens WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Maya Joint WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/05 | Xiyu Wang French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Elise Mertens
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 08/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 08/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/07 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Elena Rybakina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Laura Siegemund Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yulia Starodubtsewa vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 63% to Elise Mertens, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.