Tennis · UTR Pro East Lansing Women · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Lilian Poling vs Nao Nishino
Team pages: Lilian Poling · Nao Nishino
Prediction summary
Winner
Lilian Poling
Nao Nishino
Estimated games
18.7
Recent form · 10 last
Lilian Poling
5-5 (W-L)
Nao Nishino
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lilian Poling 1530 · Nao Nishino 1606
| Lilian Poling | Nao Nishino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 13% | 87% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nao Nishino (rating 1530 vs 1606).
- Nao Nishino is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Lilian Poling makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Lilian Poling | Nao Nishino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 1.7-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-9 | 11.3-5.6 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 63.5% | 66.4% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 64.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
18.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lilian Poling
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Fredrika Runstrom UTR Pro East Lansing Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/08 | Zoya Chulak UTR Pro East Lansing Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Audrey Spencer UTR Pro East Lansing Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Olive Maunupau UTR Pro East Lansing Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi W35 Roehampton · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Lexington Reed W75 Lexington |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Emma Dong W35 Saskatoon |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Alexandra Vagramov W35 Saskatoon |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/07 | Emma Dong W75 Granby |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Maria Sara Popa W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Nao Nishino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Lexie Weir UTR Pro East Lansing Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Ellison Reynoldson UTR Pro East Lansing Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Anastasia Akuginova UTR Pro East Lansing Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/08 | Amiya Bowles UTR Pro East Lansing Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/08 | Ekaterina Ivanova UTR Pro Columbus Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/07 | Kaede Usui UTR Pro Columbus Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/07 | Lucia Fuduric UTR Pro Columbus Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/07 | Ellison Reynoldson UTR Pro Columbus Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Gyeong Seo Lee W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-8 | L |
| 17/06 | Kristiana Sidorova W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lilian Poling vs Nao Nishino?
Our model gives 75% to Nao Nishino, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.