Tennis · M25 Slovenj Gradec · 20/08, 10:00
Prediction: Luca Castagnola vs Stefan Popovic
Team pages: Luca Castagnola · Stefan Popovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castagnola
Stefan Popovic
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castagnola
5-5 (W-L)
Stefan Popovic
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castagnola 1500 · Stefan Popovic 1523
| Luca Castagnola | Stefan Popovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Luca Castagnola | Stefan Popovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-9.5 | 10.4-9.8 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 64.7% | 64.1% |
| Break % | 42.5% | 58.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Maximilian Figl M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Bruno Fernandez M15 Trier |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Georgi Georgiev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Yoan Naydenov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Luca Parenti M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/07 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M15 Nova Gorica |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Melios Efstathiou M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/07 | Matteo Fondriest M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Stefan Popovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Bruno Fernandez M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/08 | Bor Artnak M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Oscar Brown M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Max Houkes M25 Metzingen |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Nicolas Bruna M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/07 | Vuk Radjenovic M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Gorazd Srbljak M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 29/05 | Alexander Vasilev M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Edoardo Zanada M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castagnola vs Stefan Popovic?
Our model gives 59% to Stefan Popovic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.