Tennis · M15 Tianjin · 15/08, 05:00
Prediction: Matthew Dellavedova vs Kousuke Ogura
Team pages: Matthew Dellavedova · Kousuke Ogura
Prediction summary
Winner
Matthew Dellavedova
Kousuke Ogura
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Matthew Dellavedova
8-2 (W-L)
Kousuke Ogura
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matthew Dellavedova 1616 · Kousuke Ogura 1472
| Matthew Dellavedova | Kousuke Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matthew Dellavedova (rating 1616 vs 1472).
- Matthew Dellavedova is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matthew Dellavedova | Kousuke Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-9.1 | 10.7-12.2 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 3 |
| Double faults | 0.9 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 65.5% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 40.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matthew Dellavedova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Shinji Hazawa M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 13/08 | Matthew Shearer M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Daniil Sarksian M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/08 | Yuki Mochizuki M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 08/08 | Isaac Becroft M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/08 | Suk Ann M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/08 | Yunseong Chung M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Kazuki Nakajima M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 01/08 | Omar Jasika M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Mustafa Ege Sik M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Kousuke Ogura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Duckhee Lee M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/08 | Mikalai Haliak M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 9-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Yuta Kikuchi M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 22/07 | Taiki Takizawa M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Jeremy Beale M25 Brisbane |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Omar Jasika M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Sanhui Shin M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Keisuke Saitoh M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Hayden Jones M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Hikaru Shiraishi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matthew Dellavedova vs Kousuke Ogura?
Our model gives 79% to Matthew Dellavedova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.