Tennis · M15 Targu Jiu · 11/08, 10:00
Prediction: Filippo Francesco Garbero vs Mustapha El Natour
Team pages: Filippo Francesco Garbero · Mustapha El Natour
Prediction summary
Winner
Filippo Francesco Garbero
Mustapha El Natour
Estimated games
19.2
Recent form · 10 last
Filippo Francesco Garbero
5-5 (W-L)
Mustapha El Natour
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Filippo Francesco Garbero 1491 · Mustapha El Natour 1442
| Filippo Francesco Garbero | Mustapha El Natour | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Filippo Francesco Garbero (rating 1491 vs 1442).
- Filippo Francesco Garbero is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Mustapha El Natour makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Filippo Francesco Garbero | Mustapha El Natour | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 0.6-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-10 | 6.3-10.4 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 3 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 58.2% | 57.5% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 41.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Filippo Francesco Garbero
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Gabriel Ghetu M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 04/08 | Riccardo Di Vita M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Zsombor Velcz M25 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Giovanni Ciocca M25 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/07 | Kriish Tyagi M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Giovanni Ciocca M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Marc Van Der Merwe M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Vasilios Caripi M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Roger Pascual Ferra M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Maksim Tikhomirov M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
Mustapha El Natour
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Pablo Aunion M25 Gandia |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Esteban Talavera Cortes M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Martins Rocens M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-1 | 11-9 | W |
| 12/05 | Aleksandar Mihailovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 8-10 | L |
| 21/04 | Rocco Valente M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 7-10 | L |
| 15/04 | Leonardo Rossi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 07/04 | Keshav Chopra M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/03 | Dali Blanch Challenger Alicante · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/01 | Ergi Kirkin M25 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-11 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Filippo Francesco Garbero vs Mustapha El Natour?
Our model gives 73% to Filippo Francesco Garbero, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.