Tennis · M15 Targu Jiu · 11/08, 08:30
Prediction: Andrea Paolini vs Yannick Castelnuovo
Team pages: Andrea Paolini · Yannick Castelnuovo
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Paolini
Yannick Castelnuovo
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Paolini
3-7 (W-L)
Yannick Castelnuovo
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Paolini 1482 · Yannick Castelnuovo 1469
| Andrea Paolini | Yannick Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Andrea Paolini | Yannick Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 0.9-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-10 | 9.4-9.3 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 71.9% |
| Break % | 46.1% | 36.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Paolini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Gabriele Vulpitta M15 Gubbio |
1-2 | 9-9 | L |
| 07/07 | Sean Daryabeigi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Alexander Frusina M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Lukas Pokorny M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Photos Photiades M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Dominick Mosejczuk M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Gabriel Sardo M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/05 | Lilian Marmousez Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/02 | Cezar Cretu M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/02 | Alexander Orlov M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Yannick Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Theo Herrmann M15 Strasbourg |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Melvin Vix M15 Strasbourg |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/07 | Arthur Laborde M25 Uriage |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Filippo Valdetara M25 Uriage |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Henrik Bladelius M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
0-1 | 4-6 | L |
| 14/06 | Isac Stroemberg M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-9 | L |
| 02/03 | Henri Haupt M25 Trimbach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Noah Thurner ITF M15 Forbach · Carpet |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 22/09 | Alexandre Vassard ITF M15 Forbach · Carpet |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/09 | Clement Kubiak ITF M15 Forbach · Carpet |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Paolini vs Yannick Castelnuovo?
Our model gives 65% to Andrea Paolini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.