Tennis · M25 Muttenz · 11/08, 10:00
Prediction: Matthew William Donald vs Lorenzo Bocchi
Team pages: Matthew William Donald · Lorenzo Bocchi
Prediction summary
Winner
Matthew William Donald
Lorenzo Bocchi
Estimated games
20
Recent form · 10 last
Matthew William Donald
7-3 (W-L)
Lorenzo Bocchi
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matthew William Donald
1–1
Lorenzo Bocchi
(2 last)
- 28 Mar2-0 12-6W
- 21 Jun0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matthew William Donald 1541 · Lorenzo Bocchi 1508
| Matthew William Donald | Lorenzo Bocchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Matthew William Donald | Lorenzo Bocchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-7.7 | 10.4-7.7 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 67.3% |
| Break % | 47.4% | 56.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20
H2H · Matthew William Donald 1 – 1 Lorenzo Bocchi (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matthew William Donald 1–1 Lorenzo Bocchi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 M15 Altamura | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/06/23 M15 Store | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matthew William Donald
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Olle Wallin Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Christopher Thies Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/07 | Max Wiskandt M25 Kassel |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Adrian Oetzbach M25 Kassel |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/07 | Ioannis Xilas M25 Kassel |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 09/07 | Nikolai Barsukov M25 Kassel |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Arian Barbic M25 Kassel |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 28/06 | Luca Potenza Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Lorenzo Bocchi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M15 Nova Gorica |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 17/07 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Matic Hribar M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Glib Sekachov M15 Nova Gorica |
1-0 | 6-3 | W |
| 06/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Berto Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Andrej Martin M15 Umag · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 02/07 | Nicolo Toffanin M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/06 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 23/06 | William Mirarchi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matthew William Donald vs Lorenzo Bocchi?
Our model gives 64% to Matthew William Donald, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.