Tennis · M15 Dublin · 29/07, 10:00
Prediction: Barney Fitzpatrick vs Lucas Marionneau
Team pages: Barney Fitzpatrick · Lucas Marionneau
Prediction summary
Winner
Barney Fitzpatrick
Lucas Marionneau
Estimated games
19.7
Recent form · 10 last
Barney Fitzpatrick
4-6 (W-L)
Lucas Marionneau
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barney Fitzpatrick 1474 · Lucas Marionneau 1525
| Barney Fitzpatrick | Lucas Marionneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 8% | 92% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucas Marionneau (rating 1474 vs 1525).
Statistics
| Barney Fitzpatrick | Lucas Marionneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.9-10.3 | 10.2-10 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 64.7% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 27.5% | 46.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barney Fitzpatrick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Michael Wright M15 Dublin |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/05 | Lars Goran Verwerft M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Yoan Naydenov M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/04 | Isaac Becroft M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/04 | Sungbeen Sim M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/04 | Tristan Stringer M15 Singapore · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-11 | L |
| 29/01 | Luca Staeheli M15 Zahra · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/01 | Bader Alabdullah M15 Zahra · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 26/01 | Guelfo Baldovinetti M15 Zahra · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-11 | W |
| 27/08 | Joe Leather M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Lucas Marionneau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Hugo Car M15 Rognac |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Maxence Rivet M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 21/07 | Valentin Gonzalez-Galino M15 Rognac |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Ruslan Serazhetdinov M15 Rognac |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/07 | Francisco Rocha M15 Castelo Branco |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Tiago Silva M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Luca Pow M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Zac Hamill M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 12/06 | Andrew Fenty M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Daniel Milavsky M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barney Fitzpatrick vs Lucas Marionneau?
Our model gives 76% to Lucas Marionneau, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.