Tennis · M15 Dublin · 30/07, 15:30
Prediction: Lucas Marionneau vs Valentin Lapalu
Team pages: Lucas Marionneau · Valentin Lapalu
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucas Marionneau
Valentin Lapalu
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Lucas Marionneau
6-4 (W-L)
Valentin Lapalu
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucas Marionneau 1535 · Valentin Lapalu 1479
| Lucas Marionneau | Valentin Lapalu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucas Marionneau (rating 1535 vs 1479).
- Note: Valentin Lapalu makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Lucas Marionneau | Valentin Lapalu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-8.8 | 11.6-11.8 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 60.5% |
| Break % | 46.9% | 53.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucas Marionneau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Barney Fitzpatrick M15 Dublin |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/07 | Hugo Car M15 Rognac |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Maxence Rivet M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 21/07 | Valentin Gonzalez-Galino M15 Rognac |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Ruslan Serazhetdinov M15 Rognac |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/07 | Francisco Rocha M15 Castelo Branco |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Tiago Silva M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Luca Pow M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Zac Hamill M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 12/06 | Andrew Fenty M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Valentin Lapalu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Axel Garcian M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/05 | Jules Auffray UTR Pro Match Series · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 15/05 | Louka Krynen UTR Pro Match Series · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/05 | Jim Hendrikx UTR Pro Match Series · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Gabriel Jacquemin UTR Pro Match Series · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 11/05 | Lucas Bouquet UTR Pro Match Series · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/03 | Liam Krall UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/03 | Christopher Kosei Ono UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/03 | Naoki Nakagawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucas Marionneau vs Valentin Lapalu?
Our model gives 73% to Lucas Marionneau, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.