Tennis · WTA Memphis · 28/07, 18:00
Prediction: Talia Gibson vs Tatjana Maria
Prediction summary
Winner
Talia Gibson
Tatjana Maria
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Talia Gibson
4-6 (W-L)
Tatjana Maria
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Talia Gibson
0–1
Tatjana Maria
(1 last)
- 09 Jan0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Talia Gibson 1450 · Tatjana Maria 1627
| Talia Gibson | Tatjana Maria | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 73% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tatjana Maria (rating 1450 vs 1627).
- Tatjana Maria is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Talia Gibson 0–1 Tatjana Maria (1).
- Note: Talia Gibson makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Talia Gibson | Tatjana Maria | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 29% (7) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.6-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-12.7 | 10.9-6.5 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 6.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 44.7% | 56.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Talia Gibson 0 – 1 Tatjana Maria (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Talia Gibson 0–1 Tatjana Maria
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/23 WTA Hobart | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Talia Gibson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Madison Keys WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Francesca Jones WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 07/06 | Alina Charaeva WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 25/05 | Yulia Putintseva French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 18/05 | Magdalena Frech WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/05 | Shuai Zhang WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Tatjana Maria
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Katie Volynets WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/07 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 09/07 | Katherine Sebov WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/07 | Olivia Lincer WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Yulia Putintseva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/06 | Madison Keys WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Tereza Valentova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Talia Gibson vs Tatjana Maria?
Our model gives 53% to Tatjana Maria, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.