Tennis · Challenger Liberec · 28/07, 11:00
Prediction: Joel Schwaerzler vs Maxim Mrva
Prediction summary
Winner
Joel Schwaerzler
Maxim Mrva
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Joel Schwaerzler
3-7 (W-L)
Maxim Mrva
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joel Schwaerzler 1416 · Maxim Mrva 1503
| Joel Schwaerzler | Maxim Mrva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maxim Mrva (rating 1416 vs 1503).
- Maxim Mrva is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Joel Schwaerzler | Maxim Mrva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 22% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.7 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12.5 | 11.6-12.3 |
| Aces | 12.2 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 22% | 40.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joel Schwaerzler
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Matej Dodig Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 28/05 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 26/05 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 20/05 | Roman Safiullin French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Clement Chidekh French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 13/05 | Federico Cina Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Maxim Mrva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 22/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 17/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Olle Wallin Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Jan Sadzik Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joel Schwaerzler vs Maxim Mrva?
Our model gives 55% to Maxim Mrva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.