Tennis · W35 Gentofte · 24/07, 10:30
Prediction: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Lucia Cortez Llorca
Prediction summary
Winner
Rebecca Munk Mortensen
Lucia Cortez Llorca
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rebecca Munk Mortensen
4-6 (W-L)
Lucia Cortez Llorca
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rebecca Munk Mortensen 1538 · Lucia Cortez Llorca 1483
| Rebecca Munk Mortensen | Lucia Cortez Llorca | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rebecca Munk Mortensen (rating 1538 vs 1483).
- Note: Rebecca Munk Mortensen makes many double faults (6.4/match).
- Note: Lucia Cortez Llorca makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Rebecca Munk Mortensen | Lucia Cortez Llorca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.5 | 10.9-10.2 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| 1st serve % | 61.6% | 58.2% |
| Break % | 40% | 54.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rebecca Munk Mortensen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Marie Vogt W35 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/07 | Tahlia Kokkinis W35 Gentofte |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 06/07 | Nina Vargova W75 The Hague |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Tamila Gadamauri W75 The Hague |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Adrienn Nagy W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Emma Slavikova W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-18 | W |
| 02/07 | Chiara Fornasieri W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Luca Kalman W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 18/06 | Madison Sieg W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Emma Kamper W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Lucia Cortez Llorca
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Mariia Lazarenko W35 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/07 | Kiara Zabkova W35 Gentofte |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/06 | Lorena Schaedel W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Amy Sucha W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Aleksandra Zaplawa W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/06 | Valentina Ivanov W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Viola Turini WTA Foggia · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 05/05 | Laura Pigossi WTA Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/05 | Mia Ristic WTA Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 02/05 | Sude Ulueren WTA Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Lucia Cortez Llorca?
Our model gives 51% to Lucia Cortez Llorca, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.