Tennis · W35 Gentofte · 23/07, 11:30
Prediction: Marie Vogt vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen
Prediction summary
Winner
Marie Vogt
Rebecca Munk Mortensen
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marie Vogt
8-2 (W-L)
Rebecca Munk Mortensen
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marie Vogt 1594 · Rebecca Munk Mortensen 1535
| Marie Vogt | Rebecca Munk Mortensen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marie Vogt (rating 1594 vs 1535).
- Note: Rebecca Munk Mortensen makes many double faults (6.8/match).
Statistics
| Marie Vogt | Rebecca Munk Mortensen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (2) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-7.7 | 13-11.9 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 6.8 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 60.5% |
| Break % | 59.7% | 44.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marie Vogt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Ann Akasha Ceuca W35 Gentofte |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/07 | Ruth Roura Llaverias W15 Krsko |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Rose Marie Nijkamp W15 Krsko |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/07 | Federica Trevisan W15 Krsko |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/07 | Romane Longueville W15 Krsko |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Maileen Nuudi W15 Krsko |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Zhibek Kulambayeva W75 The Hague |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 05/07 | Merel Hoedt W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Danka Kovinic W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Emma Sophie Glaser W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Rebecca Munk Mortensen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Tahlia Kokkinis W35 Gentofte |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 06/07 | Nina Vargova W75 The Hague |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Tamila Gadamauri W75 The Hague |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Adrienn Nagy W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Emma Slavikova W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-18 | W |
| 02/07 | Chiara Fornasieri W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Luca Kalman W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 18/06 | Madison Sieg W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Emma Kamper W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 10/06 | Didi Bredberg Canizares W15 Madrid |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marie Vogt vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen?
Our model gives 65% to Marie Vogt, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.