Tennis · M15 Huamantla · 23/07, 20:30
Prediction: Joaquin Guilleme vs Marco Alvarez
Prediction summary
Winner
Joaquin Guilleme
Marco Alvarez
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Joaquin Guilleme
8-2 (W-L)
Marco Alvarez
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joaquin Guilleme 1549 · Marco Alvarez 1492
| Joaquin Guilleme | Marco Alvarez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Joaquin Guilleme (rating 1549 vs 1492).
- Joaquin Guilleme is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Joaquin Guilleme | Marco Alvarez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.6 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-8.6 | 10-11 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 63.1% |
| Break % | 41.8% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joaquin Guilleme
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Andres Urrea M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Diego Dedura-Palomero M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Michael Zhu M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 18/06 | Sergi Perez Contri M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Pietro Marino M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Niccolo Ciavarella M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Guillaume Dalmasso M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Leonardo Rossi M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Linus Lagerbohm M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Felix Alopaeus M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Marco Alvarez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Darrshan Suresh M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Julian Borda M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Karl Kazuma Lee M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Avery Tallakson M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Rohan Sachdev UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/05 | Max K Fardanesh UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/05 | Jonty Giesen UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/05 | William Chase Thompson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 13/05 | Noah Zamora UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Justin Riley Anson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joaquin Guilleme vs Marco Alvarez?
Our model gives 73% to Joaquin Guilleme, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.