Tennis · W35 Gentofte · 23/07, 10:00
Prediction: Mariia Lazarenko vs Lucia Cortez Llorca
Prediction summary
Winner
Mariia Lazarenko
Lucia Cortez Llorca
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Mariia Lazarenko
7-3 (W-L)
Lucia Cortez Llorca
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mariia Lazarenko 1514 · Lucia Cortez Llorca 1465
| Mariia Lazarenko | Lucia Cortez Llorca | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mariia Lazarenko (rating 1514 vs 1465).
- Note: Lucia Cortez Llorca makes many double faults (6.2/match).
Statistics
| Mariia Lazarenko | Lucia Cortez Llorca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (2) | 17% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-8.5 | 10.9-10.9 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 6.2 |
| 1st serve % | 60.9% | 57.8% |
| Break % | 67.3% | 53.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mariia Lazarenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Astrid Wanja Brune Olsen W35 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Jessica Bertoldo W35 Torino |
1-2 | 7-8 | L |
| 18/06 | Beatrise Zeltina W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Giulia Maria Sofia Bonaccorso W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Alina Granwehr W35 Nice |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 10/06 | Arina Bulatova W35 Nice |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 09/06 | Berta Miret Avante W35 Nice |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Anastasia Bertacchi W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Lena Thomas Iglesias W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/05 | Sana Garakani W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Lucia Cortez Llorca
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Kiara Zabkova W35 Gentofte |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/06 | Lorena Schaedel W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Amy Sucha W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Aleksandra Zaplawa W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/06 | Valentina Ivanov W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Viola Turini WTA Foggia · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 05/05 | Laura Pigossi WTA Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/05 | Mia Ristic WTA Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 02/05 | Sude Ulueren WTA Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 22/04 | Maria Timofeeva W75 Chiasso · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mariia Lazarenko vs Lucia Cortez Llorca?
Our model gives 52% to Mariia Lazarenko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.