Tennis · W75 Vacaria · 22/07, 22:00
Prediction: Francesca Mattioli vs Alisa Danilova
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Mattioli
Alisa Danilova
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Mattioli
8-2 (W-L)
Alisa Danilova
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Mattioli 1560 · Alisa Danilova 1444
| Francesca Mattioli | Alisa Danilova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesca Mattioli (rating 1560 vs 1444).
- Francesca Mattioli is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Francesca Mattioli makes many double faults (6.8/match).
- Note: Alisa Danilova makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Francesca Mattioli | Alisa Danilova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-7.8 | 8.6-11 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 6.8 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 57.7% |
| Break % | 60.8% | 43% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Mattioli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano W75 Vacaria |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Mia Popovic W75 Vacaria |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 16/07 | Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez W35 Sao Paulo |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 15/07 | Pietra Rivoli W35 Sao Paulo |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Agustina Soto Neira W35 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/07 | Gabriela Carvalho Bettoni W35 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/06 | Carolina Alves W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Noelia Zeballos W15 Brasilia |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 04/06 | Maria F Herazo Gonzalez W15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/06 | Camila Markus W15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Alisa Danilova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Luiza Eidelvein W75 Vacaria |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 13/07 | Maria Carolina Ferreira Turchetto W35 Sao Paulo |
1-2 | 10-9 | L |
| 23/06 | Josefina Estevez W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Antonia Rivera W15 Luque · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Ana Filipa Santos W15 Luque · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 28/05 | Kristina Kroitor W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Ginevra Montebruno W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 13/05 | Elina Nepliy W35 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Ela Plosnik W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Ekaterina Khodzhaeva W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
1-1 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Mattioli vs Alisa Danilova?
Our model gives 75% to Francesca Mattioli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.