Tennis · WTA Prague · 23/07, 11:00
Prediction: Mai Hontama vs Lilli Tagger
Prediction summary
Winner
Mai Hontama
Lilli Tagger
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mai Hontama
8-2 (W-L)
Lilli Tagger
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mai Hontama 1551 · Lilli Tagger 1507
| Mai Hontama | Lilli Tagger | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mai Hontama (rating 1551 vs 1507).
- Note: Mai Hontama makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Mai Hontama | Lilli Tagger | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-9.9 | 11.4-10.9 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 62.7% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 57.5% | 67% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mai Hontama
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Diane Parry WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Valentina Ryser WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/07 | Barbora Palicova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Alycia Parks WTA Athens · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 13/07 | Magda Linette WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Akasha Urhobo Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Anastasia Kulikova WTA Figueira da Foz · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 13/06 | Zongyu Li W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Anchisa Chanta W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Lilli Tagger
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Xinyu Gao WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Sara Bejlek WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Marianne Argyrokastriti WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 12/07 | Madison Sieg WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/06 | Lanlana Tararudee Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/05 | Xinyu Wang French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 13/05 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Noemi Basiletti WTA Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/05 | Maria Sakkari WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mai Hontama vs Lilli Tagger?
Our model gives 54% to Lilli Tagger, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.