Tennis · M15 Brisbane · 22/07, 02:00
Prediction: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hayden Jones
Prediction summary
Winner
Matthew Dellavedova
Hayden Jones
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Matthew Dellavedova
8-2 (W-L)
Hayden Jones
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matthew Dellavedova
1–0
Hayden Jones
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matthew Dellavedova 1587 · Hayden Jones 1479
| Matthew Dellavedova | Hayden Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matthew Dellavedova (rating 1587 vs 1479).
- Matthew Dellavedova is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Matthew Dellavedova 1–0 Hayden Jones (1).
- Note: Hayden Jones makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Matthew Dellavedova | Hayden Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 88% (8) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 0.9-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-8.6 | 10.4-11 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 0.5 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 66.8% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 61.2% | 39% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
H2H · Matthew Dellavedova 1 – 0 Hayden Jones (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matthew Dellavedova 1–0 Hayden Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/24 ITF M25 Carrara | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matthew Dellavedova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Jeremy Beale M25 Brisbane |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 15/07 | Jeremy Zhang M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Omar Jasika M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Taiyo Yamanaka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Yusuke Kusuhara M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 08/07 | Hiromasa Koyama M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Sanhui Shin M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/07 | Maximus Jones M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Koki Matsuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Yusuke Takahashi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Hayden Jones
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Asher Brownrigg M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/07 | Blake Ellis M25 Brisbane |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Kousuke Ogura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Jumpei Yamasaki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Hiromasa Koyama M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/06 | Kazuki Nishiwaki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/11 | Ryuki Matsuda Challenger Playford · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/11 | Joshua Charlton Challenger Playford · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/11 | Marek Gengel Challenger Sydney · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 10/11 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matthew Dellavedova vs Hayden Jones?
Our model gives 75% to Matthew Dellavedova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.