Tennis · W35 Gentofte · 22/07, 10:00
Prediction: Kiara Zabkova vs Lucia Cortez Llorca
Prediction summary
Winner
Kiara Zabkova
Lucia Cortez Llorca
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Kiara Zabkova
7-3 (W-L)
Lucia Cortez Llorca
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kiara Zabkova 1556 · Lucia Cortez Llorca 1499
| Kiara Zabkova | Lucia Cortez Llorca | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kiara Zabkova (rating 1556 vs 1499).
- Kiara Zabkova is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Lucia Cortez Llorca makes many double faults (6.9/match).
Statistics
| Kiara Zabkova | Lucia Cortez Llorca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-7.2 | 11.4-11.6 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 6.9 |
| 1st serve % | 58.5% | 57.3% |
| Break % | 50% | 54.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kiara Zabkova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Sophia Bergqvist W35 Gentofte |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/07 | Nora Syrtveit W35 Gentofte |
2-1 | 11-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Linda Sevcikova W75 Olomouc |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Kali Supova W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/03 | Mirjana Jovanovic UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/02 | Claudia Hoste Ferrer UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-9 | W |
| 27/02 | Melissa Boyden UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/02 | Xenia Bandurowska UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/02 | Summer Yardley UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/02 | Aleksandra Stevanovic UTR Pro Carvoeiro Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Lucia Cortez Llorca
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Lorena Schaedel W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Amy Sucha W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Aleksandra Zaplawa W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/06 | Valentina Ivanov W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Viola Turini WTA Foggia · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 05/05 | Laura Pigossi WTA Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/05 | Mia Ristic WTA Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 02/05 | Sude Ulueren WTA Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 22/04 | Maria Timofeeva W75 Chiasso · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 21/04 | Yara Bartashevich W75 Chiasso · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kiara Zabkova vs Lucia Cortez Llorca?
Our model gives 66% to Lucia Cortez Llorca, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.