Tennis · W15 Nogent-sur-Marne · 21/07, 17:30
Prediction: Kim Chiarello vs Lisa Claeys
Prediction summary
Winner
Kim Chiarello
Lisa Claeys
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Kim Chiarello
3-7 (W-L)
Lisa Claeys
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kim Chiarello 1436 · Lisa Claeys 1565
| Kim Chiarello | Lisa Claeys | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lisa Claeys (rating 1436 vs 1565).
- Lisa Claeys is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Kim Chiarello makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Kim Chiarello | Lisa Claeys | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (4) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.2-11.3 | 11.2-10.2 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 58.3% | 60% |
| Break % | 35.2% | 44.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kim Chiarello
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06 | Diana Martynov W75 Blois · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Sara Cakarevic W75 Blois · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/03 | Maria Garcia Cid W15 Gonesse · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-11 | L |
| 09/03 | Charlotte Cora Bruneton W15 Gonesse · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/03 | Jahnie Van Zyl W15 Hagetmau · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-11 | L |
| 01/03 | Lena Thomas Iglesias W15 Hagetmau · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/02 | Massiva Boukirat W50 Macon · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/02 | Weronika Ewald W50 Grenoble · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 16/11 | Ekaterina Ovcharenko ITF W75 Petange · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Veronika Podrez ITF W50 Cherbourg · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Lisa Claeys
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Neus Torner Sensano W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 04/07 | Shannon Lam W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Cayetana Gay W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Jessica Bertoldo W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Fabienne Gettwart W15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/06 | Marie Vogt W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 19/06 | Tilwith Di Girolami W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 18/06 | Milena Ciocan W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 16/06 | Delia Gaillard W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Irina Balus W15 Szentendre · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kim Chiarello vs Lisa Claeys?
Our model gives 67% to Lisa Claeys, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.