Prediction: Ren Nakamura vs Keisuke Saitoh
Prediction summary
Winner
Ren Nakamura
Keisuke Saitoh
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Ren Nakamura
3-7 (W-L)
Keisuke Saitoh
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ren Nakamura 1460 · Keisuke Saitoh 1547
| Ren Nakamura | Keisuke Saitoh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keisuke Saitoh (rating 1460 vs 1547).
- Keisuke Saitoh is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Ren Nakamura | Keisuke Saitoh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.2-10.2 | 12.8-10.6 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 65.8% | 68.6% |
| Break % | 52.4% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ren Nakamura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Corban Crowther M15 Bali |
2-1 | 9-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Taiyo Yamanaka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Taketo Takamisawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 11-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Ryota Tanuma M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/04 | Maxwell McKennon M15 Villahermosa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Wulfrano Martinez Mora Esdras M15 Villahermosa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 21/04 | Drew Van Orderlain M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/03 | Scott Jones M15 Swan Hill · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/03 | Petar Jovic M15 Swan Hill · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/03 | Joshua Charlton M15 Wodonga · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Keisuke Saitoh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Hunter Heck M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-9 | L |
| 17/06 | Kousuke Ogura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 29/05 | Alan Magadan M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 28/05 | Tai Leonard Sach M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Hyung Tak Oh M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 22/05 | Dong Ju Kim M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Hunter Heck M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/05 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Gimcheon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/05 | Hoyoung Roh M15 Andong · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/05 | Woobin Shin M15 Andong · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ren Nakamura vs Keisuke Saitoh?
Our model gives 77% to Keisuke Saitoh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.