Tennis · W75 Cordenons · 20/07, 17:00
Prediction: Katerina Tsygourova vs Justine Bretnacher
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Prediction summary
Winner
Katerina Tsygourova
Justine Bretnacher
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Katerina Tsygourova
7-3 (W-L)
Justine Bretnacher
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Katerina Tsygourova 1535 · Justine Bretnacher 1441
| Katerina Tsygourova | Justine Bretnacher | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Katerina Tsygourova (rating 1535 vs 1441).
- Katerina Tsygourova is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Justine Bretnacher makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Katerina Tsygourova | Justine Bretnacher | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-9.7 | 6.4-11.5 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 63.1% | 49.3% |
| Break % | 59.5% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Katerina Tsygourova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Beatrice Ricci W35 Torino |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 17/07 | Carlota Martinez Cirez W35 Torino |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Yara Bartashevich W35 Torino |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Marie Weckerle W35 Torino |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/07 | Martina Trevisan W100 Aschaffenburg |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Laura Hietaranta W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/07 | Fernanda Labrana W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Alja Senica W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Federica Urgesi W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 18/06 | Linea Bajraliu W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Justine Bretnacher
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Sofia Avataneo W75 Cordenons |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 07/07 | Amelie Smejkalova W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-11 | L |
| 30/06 | Sofia Shapatava W35 Aix-les-Bains · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Aspen Schuman W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 09/06 | Ekaterina Kuznetsova W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 02/06 | Alice Battesti W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 26/11 | Alba Salles Canudas ITF W15 Torello · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 26/10 | Valentina Steiner ITF W35 Villeneuve d'Ascq · Hard |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Ekaterina Maklakova W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Mar C Morros W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Katerina Tsygourova vs Justine Bretnacher?
Our model gives 78% to Katerina Tsygourova, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.