Tennis · WTA Prague · 21/07, 11:00
Prediction: Xinyu Gao vs Lilli Tagger
Prediction summary
Winner
Xinyu Gao
Lilli Tagger
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Xinyu Gao
8-2 (W-L)
Lilli Tagger
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Xinyu Gao
0–1
Lilli Tagger
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Xinyu Gao 1520 · Lilli Tagger 1488
| Xinyu Gao | Lilli Tagger | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Xinyu Gao is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Xinyu Gao 0–1 Lilli Tagger (1).
Statistics
| Xinyu Gao | Lilli Tagger | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-10.3 | 10.8-11.5 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 60.3% | 62.7% |
| Break % | 51.8% | 61.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Xinyu Gao 0 – 1 Lilli Tagger (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Xinyu Gao 0–1 Lilli Tagger
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/26 Australian Open Women | 1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Xinyu Gao
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Linda Fruhvirtova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 18/07 | Susan Bandecchi WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Vendula Valdmannova WTA Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Linda Fruhvirtova WTA Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 12/07 | Carol Young Suh Lee W50 Corroios-Seixal |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Han Shi W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/07 | Hanne Vandewinkel W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Daria Khomutsianskaya W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/06 | Xiyu Wang WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Modena · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Lilli Tagger
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Sara Bejlek WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Marianne Argyrokastriti WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 12/07 | Madison Sieg WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/06 | Lanlana Tararudee Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/05 | Xinyu Wang French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 13/05 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Noemi Basiletti WTA Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/05 | Maria Sakkari WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 05/05 | Alina Korneeva WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Xinyu Gao vs Lilli Tagger?
Our model gives 55% to Lilli Tagger, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.