Tennis · W35 Torino · 14/07, 09:30
Prediction: Mariia Lazarenko vs Jessica Bertoldo
Prediction summary
Winner
Mariia Lazarenko
Jessica Bertoldo
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Mariia Lazarenko
6-4 (W-L)
Jessica Bertoldo
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mariia Lazarenko 1528 · Jessica Bertoldo 1379
| Mariia Lazarenko | Jessica Bertoldo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mariia Lazarenko (rating 1528 vs 1379).
- Mariia Lazarenko is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Jessica Bertoldo makes many double faults (6.7/match).
Statistics
| Mariia Lazarenko | Jessica Bertoldo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 0% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (2) | 0% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.6-2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-8.8 | 8.6-13.7 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 6.7 |
| 1st serve % | 58% | 49.3% |
| Break % | 61.7% | 45.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mariia Lazarenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Beatrise Zeltina W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Giulia Maria Sofia Bonaccorso W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Alina Granwehr W35 Nice |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 10/06 | Arina Bulatova W35 Nice |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 09/06 | Berta Miret Avante W35 Nice |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Anastasia Bertacchi W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Lena Thomas Iglesias W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/05 | Sana Garakani W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/05 | Julie Myatovic W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/05 | Laia Petretic W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Jessica Bertoldo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Lisa Claeys W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Masa Viriant W15 Grado · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 13/05 | Francesca Gandolfi W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-12 | L |
| 03/05 | Emma Lene W75 Saint-Gaudens · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 20/04 | Lucia Cortez Llorca W75 Chiasso · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 15/04 | Mariella Thamm W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/04 | Martina Trevisan W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Jenny Lim W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 7-10 | L |
| 09/03 | Alena Kovackova W50 Heraklion · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 04/03 | Carlota Martinez Cirez W35 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mariia Lazarenko vs Jessica Bertoldo?
Our model gives 62% to Mariia Lazarenko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.