Tennis · WTA Kitzbuhel · 14/07, 11:00
Prediction: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Kathinka Von Deichmann
Prediction summary
Winner
Maria Lourdes Carle
Kathinka Von Deichmann
Estimated games
23.9
Recent form · 10 last
Maria Lourdes Carle
5-5 (W-L)
Kathinka Von Deichmann
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Maria Lourdes Carle
1–1
Kathinka Von Deichmann
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Lourdes Carle 1501 · Kathinka Von Deichmann 1455
| Maria Lourdes Carle | Kathinka Von Deichmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maria Lourdes Carle (rating 1501 vs 1455).
- Kathinka Von Deichmann dominates on serve: 10.5 aces and 47% break avg.
- Note: Maria Lourdes Carle makes many double faults (4.6/match).
- Note: Kathinka Von Deichmann makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Maria Lourdes Carle | Kathinka Von Deichmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.2-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-10.7 | 13-13.9 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 10.5 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 59.7% | 58.1% |
| Break % | 56.6% | 47% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
H2H · Maria Lourdes Carle 1 – 1 Kathinka Von Deichmann (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maria Lourdes Carle 1–1 Kathinka Von Deichmann
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/24 WTA Bucharest | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/05/23 ITF W25 Bastad | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Lourdes Carle
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Anna Blinkova WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Laura Pigossi WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/07 | Lisa Pigato W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Dalila Jakupovic W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Valentina Steiner W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 24/06 | Jeline Vandromme Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Lucie Havlickova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Anastasiia Firman W75 Blois · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Rebecca Sramkova French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 20/05 | Maria Timofeeva French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
Kathinka Von Deichmann
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Andreea Prisacariu W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Tessa Johanna Brockmann W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva WTA Brescia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Elena Ruxandra Bertea W75 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 09/06 | Radka Zelnickova W75 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 03/06 | Alessandra Mazzola W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Himeno Sakatsume French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/05 | Joanna Garland French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 24/04 | Alice Rame W75 Chiasso · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Adrienn Nagy W75 Chiasso · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Lourdes Carle vs Kathinka Von Deichmann?
Our model gives 62% to Maria Lourdes Carle, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.