Tennis · WTA Contrexeville · 09/07, 11:00
Prediction: Anna Blinkova vs Maria Lourdes Carle
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Maria Lourdes Carle; the market gives 59% to Anna Blinkova (odds 1.57).
Recent form leaves Anna Blinkova with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Maria Lourdes Carle has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Anna Blinkova 1536 · Maria Lourdes Carle 1549
| Anna Blinkova | Maria Lourdes Carle | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Maria Lourdes Carle dominates on serve: 9.8 aces and 58% break avg.
- Note: Anna Blinkova makes many double faults (4.1/match).
- Note: Maria Lourdes Carle makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Anna Blinkova | Maria Lourdes Carle | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 56% (9) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.5 | 12.3-10.6 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 9.8 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 58.8% | 60% |
| Break % | 51.8% | 58% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Anna Blinkova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Erika Andreeva WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Yulia Starodubtsewa Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 21/06 | Solana Sierra WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Julia Avdeeva WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Taylah Preston WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Anna Bondar WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 13/06 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Emma Raducanu WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Donna Vekic WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Maria Lourdes Carle
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Laura Pigossi WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/07 | Lisa Pigato W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Dalila Jakupovic W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Valentina Steiner W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 24/06 | Jeline Vandromme Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Lucie Havlickova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Anastasiia Firman W75 Blois · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Rebecca Sramkova French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 20/05 | Maria Timofeeva French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 19/05 | Rebeka Masarova French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Anna Blinkova vs Maria Lourdes Carle?
Our model gives 54% to Anna Blinkova, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.