Tennis · WTA Contrexeville · 08/07, 11:00
Prediction: Rebeka Masarova vs Francesca Curmi
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Francesca Curmi; the market gives 69% to Rebeka Masarova (odds 1.36).
Over their last 10 matches, Rebeka Masarova sits at 4-6 (W-L), while Francesca Curmi arrives on a 8-2 run.
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rebeka Masarova 1549 · Francesca Curmi 1634
| Rebeka Masarova | Francesca Curmi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesca Curmi (rating 1549 vs 1634).
- Rebeka Masarova dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 45.6% break avg.
- Note: Rebeka Masarova makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Rebeka Masarova | Francesca Curmi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (1) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-10.8 | 11.6-8.5 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 59.2% |
| Break % | 45.6% | 47.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rebeka Masarova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Julia Grabher WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 23/06 | Jil Teichmann Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Mia Pohankova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Noma Noha Akugue WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 06/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 05/06 | Mary Stoiana WTA Birmingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 04/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/06 | Tereza Martincova WTA Birmingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 31/05 | Celine Naef WTA Birmingham · Grass |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Francesca Curmi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Oceane Dodin WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/06 | Alevtina Ibragimova W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Ipek Oz W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 18/06 | Jenny Lim W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/06 | Lola Radivojevic W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Astrid Lew Yan Foon W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/06 | Elena Ruxandra Bertea W75 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 11/06 | Isabella Shinikova W75 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/06 | Sofya Lansere W75 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
1-0 | 7-6 | W |
| 24/05 | Julie Struplova W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rebeka Masarova vs Francesca Curmi?
Our model gives 55% to Rebeka Masarova, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.