Tennis · WTA Contrexeville · 05/07, 12:30
Prediction: Yana Morderger vs Lucie Nguyen Tan
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 69% to Lucie Nguyen Tan; the market gives 90% to Lucie Nguyen Tan (odds 1.04).
Over their last 10 matches, Yana Morderger sits at 1-9 (W-L), while Lucie Nguyen Tan arrives on a 6-4 run.
80%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yana Morderger 1406 · Lucie Nguyen Tan 1547
| Yana Morderger | Lucie Nguyen Tan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 10% | 90% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucie Nguyen Tan (rating 1406 vs 1547).
- Lucie Nguyen Tan is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Yana Morderger makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Yana Morderger | Lucie Nguyen Tan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 17% (6) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.2-1.8 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 6.5-11.1 | 11.4-8.8 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 57.8% | 62.5% |
| Break % | 39.3% | 49.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yana Morderger
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04 | Emily Seibold W100 Wiesbaden · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/04 | Aneta Laboutkova W75 Portoroz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Noma Noha Akugue WTA Rovereto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/10 | Maria Martinez Vaquero ITF W100 Les Franqueses · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Leonie Kung WTA Rende · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Polina Isakova ITF W100 Lisboa |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/09 | Eva Guerrero Alvarez WTA Caldas Da Rainha · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Sina Herrmann ITF W50 Oldenzaal · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Nouk Kleinenberg ITF W50 Oldenzaal · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 22/08 | Mina Hodzic ITF W15 Wanfercee-Baulet · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Lucie Nguyen Tan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Yasmine Kabbaj W35 Aix-les-Bains · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Ekaterina Kazionova W35 Aix-les-Bains · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Zoe Ulrich W35 Aix-les-Bains · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/06 | Alevtina Ibragimova W75 Blois · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Despina Papamichail W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Alina Granwehr W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/06 | Anouck Vrancken Peeters W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 27/05 | Joanna Garland W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Ruth Roura Llaverias W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Carlota Garcia Alonso W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yana Morderger vs Lucie Nguyen Tan?
Our model gives 80% to Lucie Nguyen Tan, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.