Prediction: Yara Bartashevich vs Maria Sara Popa
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 66% to Maria Sara Popa; the market gives 65% to Maria Sara Popa (odds 1.44).
Recent form leaves Yara Bartashevich with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Maria Sara Popa has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
| Yara Bartashevich | Maria Sara Popa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maria Sara Popa (rating 1451 vs 1564).
- Maria Sara Popa is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Yara Bartashevich 1–0 Maria Sara Popa (1).
- Note: Maria Sara Popa makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Yara Bartashevich | Maria Sara Popa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 30% (10) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-11.2 | 11.2-8.5 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 62% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 44.9% |
H2H · Yara Bartashevich 1 – 0 Maria Sara Popa (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yara Bartashevich 1–0 Maria Sara Popa
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/22 ITF W25 Perigueux | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yara Bartashevich
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Madison Sieg W35 Aix-les-Bains · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Romane Longueville W35 Aix-les-Bains · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Sofya Lansere W75 Blois · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Anastasia Mozgaleva W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Sara Mikaca W35 Bol · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-8 | L |
| 20/05 | Lea Nilsson W35 Bol · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Himeno Sakatsume W75 Saint-Gaudens · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Angelina Voloshchuk W75 Saint-Gaudens · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 28/04 | Celine Naef WTA Saint-Malo · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Julie Belgraver WTA Saint-Malo · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Maria Sara Popa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Lia Karatancheva W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Britt Du Pree W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Lian Tran W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Alessandra Mazzola W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/06 | Clara Burel W35 Nice |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Iva Ivanova W35 Nice |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/06 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar W35 Nice |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/06 | Daria Yesypchuk W15 Focsani · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-10 | L |
| 05/06 | Diana-Ioana Simionescu W15 Focsani · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/06 | Simona Cucu W15 Focsani · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yara Bartashevich vs Maria Sara Popa?
Our model gives 65% to Maria Sara Popa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.