Tennis · M25 Nivelles · 04/07, 13:30
Prediction: Jannik Opitz vs Yannik Kelm
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Yannik Kelm; the market gives 69% to Yannik Kelm (odds 1.36).
Over their last 10 matches, Jannik Opitz sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Yannik Kelm arrives on a 9-1 run.
65%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jannik Opitz 1548 · Yannik Kelm 1628
| Jannik Opitz | Yannik Kelm | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yannik Kelm (rating 1548 vs 1628).
- Jannik Opitz dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 43.6% break avg.
- Yannik Kelm is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Jannik Opitz | Yannik Kelm | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (4) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-9.8 | 13-8.1 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.2% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 43.6% | 47.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jannik Opitz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Kimmer Coppejans M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Nico Hipfl M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Robert Strombachs M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Niels Ratiu M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Jonathan Mridha M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-12 | L |
| 24/04 | Anton Arzhankin M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Lukas Pokorny M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/04 | Mattias Southcombe M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 15/04 | Vadym Ursu M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/03 | Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka M25 Saint Dizier · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Yannik Kelm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Mika Petkovic M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Emilien Demanet M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Niklas Schell M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Lenn Luemkemann M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/06 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Jakub Filip M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Piet Steveker M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Attila Dominik Boros M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Peter Makk M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jannik Opitz vs Yannik Kelm?
Our model gives 65% to Yannik Kelm, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.