Tennis · M25 Nivelles · 02/07, 16:00
Prediction: Yannik Kelm vs Emilien Demanet
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Yannik Kelm; the market gives 50% to Yannik Kelm (odds 1.83).
Over their last 10 matches, Yannik Kelm sits at 9-1 (W-L), while Emilien Demanet arrives on a 6-4 run.
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yannik Kelm 1630 · Emilien Demanet 1535
| Yannik Kelm | Emilien Demanet | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yannik Kelm (rating 1630 vs 1535).
- Yannik Kelm is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Yannik Kelm | Emilien Demanet | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 90% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.4 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-7.5 | 12.1-10.4 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 53.6% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yannik Kelm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Niklas Schell M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Lenn Luemkemann M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/06 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Jakub Filip M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Piet Steveker M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Attila Dominik Boros M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Peter Makk M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 11/06 | Marcel Kamrowski M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/06 | Botond Nagy M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Emilien Demanet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Adan Freire Da Silva M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Jack Loge M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Harold Huens M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Felix Romeo M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Raphael Perot M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Pablo Trochu M25 Carnac · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 19/05 | Maxence Bertimon M25 Deauville · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yannik Kelm vs Emilien Demanet?
Our model gives 56% to Yannik Kelm, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.