Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach · 04/07, 03:30
Prediction: Pavel Bushuev vs Liam Spiers
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Pavel Bushuev; the market gives 66% to Pavel Bushuev (odds 1.40).
Over their last 10 matches, Pavel Bushuev sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Liam Spiers arrives on a 3-7 run.
62%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavel Bushuev 1488 · Liam Spiers 1442
| Pavel Bushuev | Liam Spiers | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Bushuev (rating 1488 vs 1442).
Statistics
| Pavel Bushuev | Liam Spiers | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-10.5 | 9.7-11.9 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 59.8% |
| Break % | 48.3% | 42.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavel Bushuev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Christopher Rodi UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Maciej Rajski UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Noble Renfrow UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 28/06 | Cassius Chinlund UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/06 | JP Day UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Andrew Li UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/06 | Xavier Calvelo UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | George Hakopian UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/06 | Nolan Balthazor UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Gregory Gamal UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Liam Spiers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | JP Day UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Ilan Klein UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Brayden Tallakson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 23/11 | George Hakopian UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/11 | Idriss Haddouch UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/11 | Alessandro-D Ventre UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/11 | Lambert Ruland UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/11 | Artem Khrapko UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Jose Murariu UTR Pro Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/09 | Mikhail Korkunov UTR Pro Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavel Bushuev vs Liam Spiers?
Our model gives 62% to Pavel Bushuev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.