Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach · 03/07, 02:00
Prediction: Liam Spiers vs JP Day
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 69% to JP Day; the market gives 83% to JP Day (odds 1.13).
Over their last 10 matches, Liam Spiers sits at 4-6 (W-L), while JP Day arrives on a 7-3 run.
77%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Spiers 1444 · JP Day 1580
| Liam Spiers | JP Day | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JP Day (rating 1444 vs 1580).
- JP Day is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Liam Spiers | JP Day | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.4-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-12.3 | 10.4-7 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 61.5% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 37.9% | 67.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Spiers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Ilan Klein UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Brayden Tallakson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 23/11 | George Hakopian UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/11 | Idriss Haddouch UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/11 | Alessandro-D Ventre UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/11 | Lambert Ruland UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/11 | Artem Khrapko UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Jose Murariu UTR Pro Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/09 | Mikhail Korkunov UTR Pro Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Nikolay Sysoev UTR Pro Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
JP Day
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Brayden Tallakson UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Ilan Klein UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Eric Crivei UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/06 | Pavel Bushuev UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/06 | Xavier Calvelo UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/06 | George Hakopian UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Andrew Li UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Maciej Rajski UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Yashwin Krishnakumar UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Pavel Bushuev UTR Pro Newport Beach · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Spiers vs JP Day?
Our model gives 77% to JP Day, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.