Handball · Czechia Extraliga · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: HK Lovosice vs HC Frydek-Mistek

Team pages: HK Lovosice · HC Frydek-Mistek

Prediction summary

Estimated points

59.1Total

HK Lovosice32.4

HC Frydek-Mistek26.6

1X2

79% 21%

HK Lovosice HC Frydek-Mistek

Recent form · 10 last

HK Lovosice 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWDLL

HC Frydek-Mistek 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLLW

Head-to-head

HK Lovosice 6–0 HC Frydek-Mistek (6 last)

HK Lovosice27-22HC Frydek-Mistek
HC Frydek-Mistek31-36HK Lovosice
HC Frydek-Mistek23-28HK Lovosice
HK Lovosice37-26HC Frydek-Mistek
HK Lovosice33-28HC Frydek-Mistek
HC Frydek-Mistek23-35HK Lovosice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HK Lovosice 1526 · HC Frydek-Mistek 1408

	HK Lovosice	HC Frydek-Mistek
Our model	75%	25%
Market	74%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 59.1 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +2.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points59.1HK Lovosice 32.4 · HC Frydek-Mistek 26.6

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HK Lovosice (rating 1526 vs 1408).
HK Lovosice is a clear favourite (79% market).
H2H favours HK Lovosice: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	HK Lovosice	HC Frydek-Mistek
Points F\|A (Last 10)	31.1 / 29.8	26.1 / 30.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.2 / 29.2	26 / 31.2
Est. result	32	27

Est. total59.1

Line O/U56.5

Diff.2.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

X10.00

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.85

2 (+4.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.85

Under 56.51.85

Diff.: 2.3 · Est. total: 58.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:05 +13’	1.22	10.00	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HK Lovosice 6–0–0 HC Frydek-Mistek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Czechia Extraliga	HK Lovosice	27-22	HC Frydek-Mistek
12/04/26 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	31-36	HK Lovosice
10/12/25 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	23-28	HK Lovosice
25/10/25 Czechia Extraliga	HK Lovosice	37-26	HC Frydek-Mistek
30/11/24 Czechia Extraliga	HK Lovosice	33-28	HC Frydek-Mistek
14/09/24 Czechia Extraliga	HC Frydek-Mistek	23-35	HK Lovosice

Standings · Czechia Extraliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Banik Karvina	5	5	0	0	168	143	10
2	Talent Plzen	5	4	1	0	154	136	9
3	Dukla Praha	5	4	0	1	187	145	8
4	HC Zubri	5	4	0	1	153	131	8
5	Nove Veseli	5	3	0	2	139	133	6
6	HK Lovosice	5	2	1	2	159	149	5
7	HBC Jicin	5	2	0	3	141	145	4
8	KP Brno 1920	5	2	0	3	133	150	4
9	HC Zlin	5	1	0	4	141	160	2
10	KH Koprivnice	5	1	0	4	126	146	2
11	HC Frydek-Mistek	5	1	0	4	130	156	2
12	HBC Strakonice 1921	5	0	0	5	142	179	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HK Lovosice	HC Frydek-Mistek
Banik Karvina	27-29 L	30-36 L
Dukla Praha	26-39 L	27-42 L
Talent Plzen	29-29 D	24-27 L
HBC Jicin	36-26 W	23-30 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: HK Lovosice (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HK Lovosice

WLWWLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	27-29	L
19/09	Dukla Praha Czechia Extraliga	26-39	L
13/09	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	29-29	D
05/09	HBC Jicin Czechia Extraliga	36-26	W
01/05	KP Brno 1920 Czechia Extraliga	38-23	W
24/04	KP Brno 1920 Czechia Extraliga	31-36	L
18/04	HC Frydek-Mistek Czechia Extraliga	27-22	W
12/04	HC Frydek-Mistek Czechia Extraliga	36-31	W
08/04	HC Zubri Czechia Extraliga	25-30	L
05/04	HC Zubri Czechia Extraliga	36-33	W

HC Frydek-Mistek

LLLWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/10	HBC Strakonice 1921 Czechia Extraliga	29-26	W
27/09	Dukla Praha Czechia Extraliga	27-42	L
20/09	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	24-27	L
13/09	HBC Jicin Czechia Extraliga	23-30	L
06/09	KH Koprivnice Czechia Extraliga	27-31	L
29/04	Nove Veseli Czechia Extraliga	14-25	L
25/04	Nove Veseli Czechia Extraliga	34-26	W
18/04	HK Lovosice Czechia Extraliga	22-27	L
12/04	HK Lovosice Czechia Extraliga	31-36	L
01/04	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	30-36	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HK Lovosice vs HC Frydek-Mistek?

Our model gives 79% to HK Lovosice.

How many points are expected in HK Lovosice vs HC Frydek-Mistek?

The model estimates 59.1 total points (HK Lovosice 32.4 · HC Frydek-Mistek 26.6).