Handball · Czechia Extraliga · 17/10, 17:00

Prediction: Nove Veseli vs HK Lovosice

Team pages: Nove Veseli · HK Lovosice

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.7Total

Nove Veseli29.7

HK Lovosice29

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

45% 55%

Nove Veseli HK Lovosice

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Under 60.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Nove Veseli 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWLLW

HK Lovosice 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWDLLW

Head-to-head

Nove Veseli 1–5 HK Lovosice (6 last)

HK Lovosice30-28Nove Veseli
HK Lovosice34-28Nove Veseli
Nove Veseli34-37HK Lovosice
HK Lovosice30-27Nove Veseli
Nove Veseli29-28HK Lovosice
Nove Veseli26-32HK Lovosice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nove Veseli 1488 · HK Lovosice 1529

	Nove Veseli	HK Lovosice
Our model	54%	46%
Market	34%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 58.7 points · Bet365 line 60.5 · -1.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.7Nove Veseli 29.7 · HK Lovosice 29

Over / Under 60.5Under · 65%recent trend · ~57.4 pts · strength 3

Match keys

H2H favours HK Lovosice: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Nove Veseli	HK Lovosice
Points F\|A (Last 10)	28.1 / 27.1	30.4 / 29.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	27.8 / 27.4	29.4 / 30
Est. result	30	29

Est. total58.7

Line O/U60.5

Diff.1.8

Over / Under35% / 65%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.60

X8.00

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.80

2 (-1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 60.51.85

Under 60.51.85

Diff.: 3.1 · Est. total: 57.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:14 +2’	2.60	8.00	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nove Veseli 1–0–5 HK Lovosice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Czechia Extraliga	HK Lovosice	30-28	Nove Veseli
02/12/25 Czechia Cup	HK Lovosice	34-28	Nove Veseli
08/11/25 Czechia Extraliga	Nove Veseli	34-37	HK Lovosice
08/03/25 Czechia Extraliga	HK Lovosice	30-27	Nove Veseli
16/11/24 Czechia Extraliga	Nove Veseli	29-28	HK Lovosice
16/12/23 Czechia Extraliga	Nove Veseli	26-32	HK Lovosice

Standings · Czechia Extraliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Banik Karvina	6	6	0	0	194	166	12
2	Talent Plzen	6	5	1	0	184	163	11
3	Dukla Praha	6	5	0	1	227	171	10
4	HC Zubri	7	4	1	2	210	191	9
5	Nove Veseli	6	4	0	2	172	162	8
6	HK Lovosice	6	3	1	2	188	176	7
7	KP Brno 1920	6	3	0	3	165	177	6
8	HBC Jicin	6	2	0	4	168	177	4
9	KH Koprivnice	6	1	0	5	149	172	2
10	HC Frydek-Mistek	6	1	0	5	157	185	2
11	HC Zlin	6	1	0	5	167	200	2
12	HBC Strakonice 1921	7	0	1	6	201	242	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nove Veseli	HK Lovosice
Dukla Praha	26-34 L	26-39 L
Talent Plzen	23-29 L	29-29 D
HBC Jicin	27-23 W	36-26 W
KP Brno 1920	33-25 W	38-23 W
HC Frydek-Mistek	25-14 W	29-27 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: HK Lovosice (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nove Veseli

LLLWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	HBC Strakonice 1921 Czechia Extraliga	33-29	W
03/10	Dukla Praha Czechia Extraliga	26-34	L
27/09	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	23-29	L
19/09	HBC Jicin Czechia Extraliga	27-23	W
13/09	KH Koprivnice Czechia Extraliga	30-22	W
05/09	KP Brno 1920 Czechia Extraliga	33-25	W
29/04	HC Frydek-Mistek Czechia Extraliga	25-14	W
25/04	HC Frydek-Mistek Czechia Extraliga	26-34	L
17/04	KP Brno 1920 Czechia Extraliga	26-28	L
10/04	KP Brno 1920 Czechia Extraliga	32-33	L

HK Lovosice

LWWLWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	HC Frydek-Mistek Czechia Extraliga	29-27	W
03/10	Banik Karvina Czechia Extraliga	27-29	L
19/09	Dukla Praha Czechia Extraliga	26-39	L
13/09	Talent Plzen Czechia Extraliga	29-29	D
05/09	HBC Jicin Czechia Extraliga	36-26	W
01/05	KP Brno 1920 Czechia Extraliga	38-23	W
24/04	KP Brno 1920 Czechia Extraliga	31-36	L
18/04	HC Frydek-Mistek Czechia Extraliga	27-22	W
12/04	HC Frydek-Mistek Czechia Extraliga	36-31	W
08/04	HC Zubri Czechia Extraliga	25-30	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nove Veseli vs HK Lovosice?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Nove Veseli 45% · HK Lovosice 55%).

How many points are expected in Nove Veseli vs HK Lovosice?

The model estimates 58.7 total points (Nove Veseli 29.7 · HK Lovosice 29).

Over or under 60.5 points?

Recent history points to under 60.5 points (65%).