Handball · Spain Liga Guerreras Women · 14/10, 20:00

Prediction: BM Elche (W) vs Sporting La Rioja (W)

Team pages: BM Elche (W) · Sporting La Rioja (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

44.1Total

BM Elche (W)24

Sporting La Rioja (W)20.2

1X2

74% 26%

BM Elche (W) Sporting La Rioja (W)

Recent form · 10 last

BM Elche (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWWLWW

Sporting La Rioja (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLLWWW

Head-to-head

BM Elche (W) 5–1–0 Sporting La Rioja (W) (6 last)

BM Elche (W)31-14Sporting La Rioja (W)
Sporting La Rioja (W)13-19BM Elche (W)
BM Elche (W)22-20Sporting La Rioja (W)
Sporting La Rioja (W)24-24BM Elche (W)
Sporting La Rioja (W)23-31BM Elche (W)
BM Elche (W)27-22Sporting La Rioja (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BM Elche (W) 1594 · Sporting La Rioja (W) 1515

	BM Elche (W)	Sporting La Rioja (W)
Our model	70%	30%
Market	68%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 44.1 points · Bet365 line 45.5 · -1.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points44.1BM Elche (W) 24 · Sporting La Rioja (W) 20.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BM Elche (W) (rating 1594 vs 1515).
BM Elche (W) is a clear favourite (74% market).
H2H favours BM Elche (W): 5-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	BM Elche (W)	Sporting La Rioja (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	23.9 / 21.5	23 / 23
Points F\|A (Last 5)	24.8 / 21.4	23.4 / 24.4
Est. result	24	20

Est. total44.1

Line O/U45.5

Diff.1.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.32

X8.50

24.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.95

2 (+3.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 45.51.85

Under 45.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · Est. total: 45.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.32▲	Bet365 1.32
X	9.00 → 8.50▼	Bet365 8.50
2	5.50 → 4.25▼	Bet365 4.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:15 +61’	1.22	9.00	5.50
12:05 +13’	1.32▲	8.50▼	4.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BM Elche (W) 5–1–0 Sporting La Rioja (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Elche (W)	31-14	Sporting La Rioja (W)
30/08/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Sporting La Rioja (W)	13-19	BM Elche (W)
01/02/25 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Elche (W)	22-20	Sporting La Rioja (W)
14/09/24 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Sporting La Rioja (W)	24-24	BM Elche (W)
29/03/23 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	Sporting La Rioja (W)	23-31	BM Elche (W)
16/12/22 Spain Liga Guerreras Women	BM Elche (W)	27-22	Sporting La Rioja (W)

Standings · Spain Liga Guerreras Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bera Bera (W)	5	5	0	0	137	107	10
2	Atletico Guardes (W)	5	4	1	0	122	94	9
3	BM Elche (W)	5	4	0	1	124	107	8
4	Elda Prestigio (W)	5	4	0	1	121	113	8
5	CBF Malaga (W)	5	3	0	2	124	102	6
6	Sporting La Rioja (W)	4	3	0	1	97	98	6
7	Beti-Onak (W)	5	2	1	2	113	116	5
8	BM Porrino (W)	5	2	0	3	103	121	4
9	BM Morvedre (W)	5	2	0	3	102	112	4
10	BM Granollers (W)	5	2	0	3	109	122	4
11	Rocasa (W)	5	1	0	4	133	137	2
12	Oviedo BM (W)	4	1	0	3	77	82	2
13	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W)	5	0	0	5	118	134	0
14	Pozuelo de Calatrava (W)	5	0	0	5	99	134	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BM Elche (W)	Sporting La Rioja (W)
BM Granollers (W)	27-23 W	28-23 W
Atletico Guardes (W)	16-20 L	17-29 L
BM Porrino (W)	26-16 W	22-25 L
BM Morvedre (W)	25-25 D	24-21 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BM Elche (W)

DWWWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	Oviedo BM (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	24-22	W
03/10	BM Granollers (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	27-23	W
16/09	Atletico Guardes (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	16-20	L
12/09	BM Porrino (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	26-16	W
09/09	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	31-26	W
03/05	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	19-25	L
25/04	Rocasa (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	24-19	W
18/04	BM Granollers (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-18	W
04/04	Lanzarote Zonzamas (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-21	W
01/04	BM Morvedre (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-25	D

Sporting La Rioja (W)

WWWLLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	BM Morvedre (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	24-21	W
03/10	Pozuelo de Calatrava (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	28-25	W
12/09	BM Granollers (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	28-23	W
09/09	Atletico Guardes (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	17-29	L
02/05	Bera Bera (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	20-24	L
25/04	Bera Bera (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	23-25	L
18/04	BM Porrino (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-25	L
04/04	Aula Cultural (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	25-19	W
01/04	CBF Malaga (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	21-20	W
21/03	Beti-Onak (W) Spain Liga Guerreras Women	22-19	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BM Elche (W) vs Sporting La Rioja (W)?

Our model gives 74% to BM Elche (W).

How many points are expected in BM Elche (W) vs Sporting La Rioja (W)?

The model estimates 44.1 total points (BM Elche (W) 24 · Sporting La Rioja (W) 20.2).