Handball · Germany 2 Bundesliga · 23/10, 19:00

Prediction: TUS Ferndorf vs HC Elbflorenz 2006

Team pages: TUS Ferndorf · HC Elbflorenz 2006

Prediction summary

Estimated points

63.8Total

TUS Ferndorf30.2

HC Elbflorenz 200633.6

1X2

34% 66%

TUS Ferndorf HC Elbflorenz 2006

Markets

Over 59.5 points 80%

Recent form · 10 last

TUS Ferndorf 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLLLW

HC Elbflorenz 2006 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

TUS Ferndorf 1–2–3 HC Elbflorenz 2006 (6 last)

TUS Ferndorf28-31HC Elbflorenz 2006
HC Elbflorenz 200633-33TUS Ferndorf
TUS Ferndorf24-21HC Elbflorenz 2006
HC Elbflorenz 200621-21TUS Ferndorf
TUS Ferndorf23-25HC Elbflorenz 2006
HC Elbflorenz 200629-24TUS Ferndorf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TUS Ferndorf 1479 · HC Elbflorenz 2006 1593

	TUS Ferndorf	HC Elbflorenz 2006
Our model	44%	56%
Market	25%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 63.8 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · +4.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points63.8TUS Ferndorf 30.2 · HC Elbflorenz 2006 33.6

Over / Under 59.5Over · 80%recent trend · ~62.2 pts · strength 3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HC Elbflorenz 2006 (rating 1479 vs 1593).
HC Elbflorenz 2006 is a clear favourite (66% market).
H2H favours HC Elbflorenz 2006: 3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	TUS Ferndorf	HC Elbflorenz 2006
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.5 / 30.5	36.6 / 29.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.2 / 30.4	35.8 / 28.8
Est. result	30	34

Est. total63.8

Line O/U59.5

Diff.4.3

Over / Under80% / 20%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.60

X9.00

21.37

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.95

2 (-2.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.85

Under 59.51.85

Diff.: 4.05 · Est. total: 63.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	1.37 → 1.37	Bet365 1.37

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:08 +8’	3.60	9.00	1.37

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TUS Ferndorf 1–2–3 HC Elbflorenz 2006

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TUS Ferndorf	28-31	HC Elbflorenz 2006
09/11/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga	HC Elbflorenz 2006	33-33	TUS Ferndorf
30/03/25 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TUS Ferndorf	24-21	HC Elbflorenz 2006
23/10/24 Germany 2 Bundesliga	HC Elbflorenz 2006	21-21	TUS Ferndorf
14/05/22 Germany 2 Bundesliga	TUS Ferndorf	23-25	HC Elbflorenz 2006
05/12/21 Germany 2 Bundesliga	HC Elbflorenz 2006	29-24	TUS Ferndorf

Standings · Germany 2 Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HC Elbflorenz 2006	8	7	0	1	296	232	14
2	SC DHFK Leipzig	8	7	0	1	258	236	14
3	VfL Eintracht Hagen	8	6	0	2	262	221	12
4	VFL Bad Schwartau	8	6	0	2	267	235	12
5	1. Vfl Potsdam	8	6	0	2	235	224	12
6	TSV GWD Minden	8	4	1	3	248	229	9
7	TV Grosswallstadt	8	4	1	3	248	246	9
8	TUS Ferndorf	8	4	0	4	241	236	8
9	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen	8	3	2	3	248	244	8
10	TSV Bayer Dormagen	8	4	0	4	232	253	8
11	TuS N-Lubbecke	8	3	1	4	221	239	7
12	TV 05/07 Huttenberg	8	3	0	5	256	256	6
13	TV Emsdetten	8	2	1	5	244	253	5
14	HSC 2000 Coburg	8	1	3	4	218	245	5
15	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06	8	2	0	6	251	269	4
16	Die Eulen Ludwigshafen	8	2	0	6	214	244	4
17	ASV Hamm-Westfalen	8	2	0	6	219	268	4
18	TuSEM Essen	8	1	1	6	237	265	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TUS Ferndorf	HC Elbflorenz 2006
TV Grosswallstadt	24-32 L	33-29 W
Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06	39-33 W	37-34 W
HSC 2000 Coburg	30-31 L	30-20 W
Die Eulen Ludwigshafen	34-27 W	38-28 W
TuSEM Essen	33-35 L	42-26 W
TV 05/07 Huttenberg	31-34 L	33-31 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: HC Elbflorenz 2006 (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TUS Ferndorf

LLWWLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	HSG Nordhorn-Lingen Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-30	W
11/10	TV Grosswallstadt Germany 2 Bundesliga	24-32	L
05/10	1. Vfl Potsdam Germany 2 Bundesliga	28-32	L
27/09	VfL Eintracht Hagen Germany 2 Bundesliga	22-25	L
18/09	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06 Germany 2 Bundesliga	39-33	W
12/09	HSC 2000 Coburg Germany 2 Bundesliga	30-31	L
04/09	TV Emsdetten Germany 2 Bundesliga	31-26	W
29/08	Die Eulen Ludwigshafen Germany 2 Bundesliga	34-27	W
06/06	TuSEM Essen Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-35	L
30/05	TV 05/07 Huttenberg Germany 2 Bundesliga	31-34	L

HC Elbflorenz 2006

WWWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Die Eulen Ludwigshafen Germany 2 Bundesliga	38-28	W
10/10	HSC 2000 Coburg Germany 2 Bundesliga	30-20	W
04/10	TV 05/07 Huttenberg Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-31	W
26/09	ASV Hamm-Westfalen Germany 2 Bundesliga	43-28	W
20/09	SC DHFK Leipzig Germany 2 Bundesliga	35-37	L
11/09	TuSEM Essen Germany 2 Bundesliga	42-26	W
05/09	TuS N-Lubbecke Germany 2 Bundesliga	37-31	W
30/08	TSV Bayer Dormagen Germany 2 Bundesliga	38-31	W
06/06	Dessau-Rosslauer HV 06 Germany 2 Bundesliga	37-34	W
29/05	TV Grosswallstadt Germany 2 Bundesliga	33-29	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TUS Ferndorf vs HC Elbflorenz 2006?

Our model gives 66% to HC Elbflorenz 2006.

How many points are expected in TUS Ferndorf vs HC Elbflorenz 2006?

The model estimates 63.8 total points (TUS Ferndorf 30.2 · HC Elbflorenz 2006 33.6).

Over or under 59.5 points?

Recent history points to over 59.5 points (80%).