Handball · Norway Eliteserien Women · 30/09, 18:00

Prediction: Gjerpen (W) vs Fredrikstad (W)

Team pages: Gjerpen (W) · Fredrikstad (W)

Prediction summary

Estimated points

55.5Total

Gjerpen (W)27.2

Fredrikstad (W)28.2

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

56% 44%

Gjerpen (W) Fredrikstad (W)

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Gjerpen (W) 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLLLWL

Fredrikstad (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLLLWD

Head-to-head

Gjerpen (W) 3–3 Fredrikstad (W) (6 last)

Gjerpen (W)26-24Fredrikstad (W)
Fredrikstad (W)29-26Gjerpen (W)
Gjerpen (W)29-23Fredrikstad (W)
Fredrikstad (W)40-26Gjerpen (W)
Gjerpen (W)30-32Fredrikstad (W)
Gjerpen (W)34-26Fredrikstad (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gjerpen (W) 1494 · Fredrikstad (W) 1540

	Gjerpen (W)	Fredrikstad (W)
Our model	53%	47%
Market	51%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 55.5 points · Bet365 line 59.5 · -4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points55.5Gjerpen (W) 27.2 · Fredrikstad (W) 28.2

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Gjerpen (W)	Fredrikstad (W)
Points F\|A (Last 10)	25.4 / 28	28.7 / 28.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	22.4 / 30.4	27.8 / 30.2
Est. result	27	28

Est. total55.5

Line O/U59.5

Diff.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.80

X8.00

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 59.51.85

Under 59.51.85

Diff.: 4.3 · Est. total: 55.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:11 +5’	1.80	8.00	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gjerpen (W) 3–0–3 Fredrikstad (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Club Friendlies Women	Gjerpen (W)	26-24	Fredrikstad (W)
22/02/26 Norway Eliteserien Women	Fredrikstad (W)	29-26	Gjerpen (W)
12/11/25 Norway Eliteserien Women	Gjerpen (W)	29-23	Fredrikstad (W)
23/03/25 Norway Eliteserien Women	Fredrikstad (W)	40-26	Gjerpen (W)
08/01/25 Norway Eliteserien Women	Gjerpen (W)	30-32	Fredrikstad (W)
17/03/24 Norway Eliteserien Women	Gjerpen (W)	34-26	Fredrikstad (W)

Standings · Norway Eliteserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tertnes (W)	4	4	0	0	142	105	8
2	Storhamar (W)	4	4	0	0	117	80	8
3	Larvik (W)	4	4	0	0	135	102	8
4	Sola (W)	3	3	0	0	97	64	6
5	Molde (W)	4	3	0	1	119	98	6
6	Byasen (W)	4	2	0	2	104	100	4
7	Fjellhammer (W)	4	1	1	2	107	110	3
8	Fredrikstad (W)	3	1	1	1	87	90	3
9	Gjerpen (W)	3	1	0	2	64	86	2
10	Oppsal (W)	4	1	0	3	104	129	2
11	Follo HK (W)	4	1	0	3	107	136	2
12	Fana (W)	3	0	0	3	70	93	0
13	Flint Tonsberg (W)	4	0	0	4	108	136	0
14	Utleira (W)	4	0	0	4	82	114	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gjerpen (W)	Fredrikstad (W)
Byasen (W)	16-22 L	21-29 L
Flint Tonsberg (W)	30-29 W	38-28 W
Storhamar (W)	18-35 L	28-30 L
Sola (W)	27-34 L	20-33 L
Baerum Women	31-27 W	35-19 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fredrikstad (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gjerpen (W)

LLWWWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/09	Byasen (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	16-22	L
30/08	Flint Tonsberg (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	30-29	W
26/08	Storhamar (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	18-35	L
03/05	Sola (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	27-34	L
29/04	Sola (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	21-32	L
22/04	Byasen (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	33-18	W
16/04	Baerum Women Norway Eliteserien Women	31-27	W
28/03	Tertnes (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	28-24	W
25/03	Storhamar (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	25-30	L
15/03	Follo HK (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	25-29	L

Fredrikstad (W)

LWLWDLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/09	Fjellhammer (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	29-29	D
10/09	Flint Tonsberg (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	38-28	W
30/08	Sola (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	20-33	L
04/05	Storhamar (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	28-30	L
29/04	Storhamar (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	24-31	L
22/04	Molde (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	30-30	D
16/04	Fjellhammer (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	35-17	W
28/03	Larvik (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	27-37	L
22/03	Baerum Women Norway Eliteserien Women	35-19	W
18/03	Byasen (W) Norway Eliteserien Women	21-29	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gjerpen (W) vs Fredrikstad (W)?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Gjerpen (W) 56% · Fredrikstad (W) 44%).

How many points are expected in Gjerpen (W) vs Fredrikstad (W)?

The model estimates 55.5 total points (Gjerpen (W) 27.2 · Fredrikstad (W) 28.2).