Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 21/11, 18:00

Prediction: Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Radomlje

Team pages: Olimpija Ljubljana · NK Radomlje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Olimpija Ljubljana2.08

NK Radomlje0.94

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Olimpija Ljubljana Draw NK Radomlje

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpija Ljubljana 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDWDWD

NK Radomlje 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLDDDLL

Head-to-head

Olimpija Ljubljana 4–1–1 NK Radomlje (6 last)

NK Radomlje0-0Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana2-1NK Radomlje
NK Radomlje1-2Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana2-1NK Radomlje
NK Radomlje3-2Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana5-0NK Radomlje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpija Ljubljana 1587 · NK Radomlje 1429

	Olimpija Ljubljana	Draw	NK Radomlje
Our model	63%	22%	15%
Market	63%	22%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpija Ljubljana (rating 1587 vs 1429).
H2H favours Olimpija Ljubljana: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpija Ljubljana	NK Radomlje
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.7	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.10

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Pinn 1.46
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.47 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.16

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +3’	1.42	4.10	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +1’	1.43	4.64	6.39
09:05 +10’	1.46▲	4.47▼	6.16▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpija Ljubljana 4–1–1 NK Radomlje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Radomlje	0-0 HT 0-0	Olimpija Ljubljana
17/05/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Radomlje
14/03/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Radomlje	1-2 HT 1-0	Olimpija Ljubljana
29/11/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Radomlje
13/09/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Radomlje	3-2 HT 0-2	Olimpija Ljubljana
17/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	5-0 HT 2-0	NK Radomlje

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Koper	15	8	5	2	26	13	29
2	NK Maribor	15	6	6	3	22	16	24
3	NK Bravo	15	6	5	4	17	16	23
4	NK Celje	14	6	5	3	19	13	23
5	Olimpija Ljubljana	15	6	5	4	17	13	23
6	NK Nafta 1903	15	5	4	6	19	21	19
7	Aluminij Kidricevo	15	4	5	6	21	14	17
8	NK Brinje Grosuplje	15	4	4	7	16	25	16
9	NS Mura	15	2	8	5	15	26	14
10	NK Radomlje	14	1	5	8	16	31	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpija Ljubljana	NK Radomlje
NK Nafta 1903	1-1 D	1-3 L
NK Maribor	1-0 W	0-3 L
NK Celje	1-1 D	1-2 L
Aluminij Kidricevo	1-0 W	0-5 L
NS Mura	3-3 D	1-1 D
NK Bravo	1-2 L	2-2 D
FC Koper	3-1 W	3-3 D
NK Brinje Grosuplje	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpija Ljubljana (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpija Ljubljana

WDWWLDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
31/10	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
28/10	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
16/10	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
10/10	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-3	7	5	D
20/09	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	6	11	L
12/09	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	3-1	3	8	W
05/09	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
29/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
21/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W

NK Radomlje

LDLLLDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	1-2	3	4	L
31/10	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-2	0-5	5	3	L
27/10	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	6	11	D
17/10	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
10/10	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	2-2	3-3	2	8	D
20/09	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
13/09	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
04/09	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-3	5	3	L
29/08	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
16/08	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-3	1-3	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Radomlje?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpija Ljubljana win (63%). Probabilities: Olimpija Ljubljana 63%, draw 22%, NK Radomlje 15%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Radomlje?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Olimpija Ljubljana 2.08 · NK Radomlje 0.94), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Radomlje?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.