Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 21/11, 18:00

Prediction: FC Koper vs Aluminij Kidricevo

Team pages: FC Koper · Aluminij Kidricevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

FC Koper1.93

Aluminij Kidricevo1.11

1X2

55% 24% 21%

FC Koper Draw Aluminij Kidricevo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Koper 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWWWD

Aluminij Kidricevo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLLDWL

Head-to-head

FC Koper 5–1 Aluminij Kidricevo (6 last)

Aluminij Kidricevo0-1FC Koper
FC Koper1-0Aluminij Kidricevo
Aluminij Kidricevo2-4FC Koper
FC Koper4-1Aluminij Kidricevo
Aluminij Kidricevo1-0FC Koper
FC Koper2-1Aluminij Kidricevo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Koper 1597 · Aluminij Kidricevo 1472

	FC Koper	Draw	Aluminij Kidricevo
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Koper (rating 1597 vs 1472).
H2H favours FC Koper: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Koper	Aluminij Kidricevo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.5	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.75

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +9’	1.61	3.75	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Koper 5–0–1 Aluminij Kidricevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/08/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	Aluminij Kidricevo	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Koper
09/05/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	1-0 HT 0-0	Aluminij Kidricevo
08/03/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	Aluminij Kidricevo	2-4 HT 1-4	FC Koper
22/11/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	4-1 HT 2-0	Aluminij Kidricevo
29/08/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	Aluminij Kidricevo	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Koper
11/04/24 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	2-1 HT 0-1	Aluminij Kidricevo

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Koper	15	8	5	2	26	13	29
2	NK Maribor	15	6	6	3	22	16	24
3	NK Bravo	15	6	5	4	17	16	23
4	NK Celje	14	6	5	3	19	13	23
5	Olimpija Ljubljana	15	6	5	4	17	13	23
6	NK Nafta 1903	15	5	4	6	19	21	19
7	Aluminij Kidricevo	15	4	5	6	21	14	17
8	NK Brinje Grosuplje	15	4	4	7	16	25	16
9	NS Mura	15	2	8	5	15	26	14
10	NK Radomlje	14	1	5	8	16	31	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Koper	Aluminij Kidricevo
NS Mura	1-1 D	6-1 W
NK Bravo	2-1 W	0-0 D
NK Maribor	4-0 W	2-2 D
NK Brinje Grosuplje	5-0 W	0-1 L
NK Radomlje	3-3 D	5-0 W
NK Nafta 1903	2-0 W	0-0 D
Olimpija Ljubljana	1-3 L	0-1 L
NK Celje	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Koper (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Koper

WWWLWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
02/11	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
27/10	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	4-0	2	5	W
18/10	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	2-0	5-0	3	5	W
10/10	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	2-2	3-3	10	8	D
19/09	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
12/09	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-3	4	8	L
06/09	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
28/08	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Aluminij Kidricevo

LLDWDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
31/10	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
28/10	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
16/10	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
10/10	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
19/09	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-2	9	2	D
13/09	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	3-0	6-1	4	6	W
05/09	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
02/09	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
28/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Koper vs Aluminij Kidricevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Koper win (55%). Probabilities: FC Koper 55%, draw 24%, Aluminij Kidricevo 21%.

How many goals are expected in FC Koper vs Aluminij Kidricevo?

The model expects 3.04 goals (FC Koper 1.93 · Aluminij Kidricevo 1.11), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Koper vs Aluminij Kidricevo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.