Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 21/11, 18:00

Prediction: NK Maribor vs NK Nafta 1903

Team pages: NK Maribor · NK Nafta 1903

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

NK Maribor1.82

NK Nafta 19030.91

1X2

58% 24% 18%

NK Maribor Draw NK Nafta 1903

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Maribor 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDLLL

NK Nafta 1903 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWDDLD

Head-to-head

NK Maribor 4–1–1 NK Nafta 1903 (6 last)

NK Nafta 19032-3NK Maribor
NK Maribor0-1NK Nafta 1903
NK Nafta 19031-1NK Maribor
NK Maribor4-0NK Nafta 1903
NK Nafta 19030-3NK Maribor
NK Nafta 19030-3NK Maribor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Maribor 1517 · NK Nafta 1903 1509

	NK Maribor	Draw	NK Nafta 1903
Our model	58%	25%	17%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Maribor: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Maribor	NK Nafta 1903
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.4	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.80

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.55
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.18 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +10’	1.53	3.80	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:14 +4’	1.55	4.18	5.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Maribor 4–1–1 NK Nafta 1903

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Nafta 1903	2-3 HT 1-2	NK Maribor
25/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Nafta 1903
16/04/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Nafta 1903	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Maribor
08/12/24 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	4-0 HT 1-0	NK Nafta 1903
22/09/24 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Nafta 1903	0-3 HT 0-0	NK Maribor
16/01/24 Europe Friendlies	NK Nafta 1903	0-3 HT 0-1	NK Maribor

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Koper	15	8	5	2	26	13	29
2	NK Maribor	15	6	6	3	22	16	24
3	NK Bravo	15	6	5	4	17	16	23
4	NK Celje	14	6	5	3	19	13	23
5	Olimpija Ljubljana	15	6	5	4	17	13	23
6	NK Nafta 1903	15	5	4	6	19	21	19
7	Aluminij Kidricevo	15	4	5	6	21	14	17
8	NK Brinje Grosuplje	15	4	4	7	16	25	16
9	NS Mura	15	2	8	5	15	26	14
10	NK Radomlje	14	1	5	8	16	31	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Maribor	NK Nafta 1903
NK Bravo	1-2 L	1-0 W
Olimpija Ljubljana	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Koper	0-4 L	0-2 L
NK Celje	0-0 D	0-4 L
NK Brinje Grosuplje	2-1 W	2-1 W
Aluminij Kidricevo	2-2 D	0-0 D
NK Radomlje	3-0 W	3-1 W
NS Mura	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Nafta 1903 (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Maribor

WWDWDWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
31/10	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	10	6	L
27/10	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
18/10	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
11/10	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
19/09	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-2	9	2	D
13/09	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	2-0	3-0	10	3	W
06/09	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
30/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	2-1	3-2	8	5	W
23/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	3-1	10	4	W

NK Nafta 1903

LLWWLWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
01/11	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-3	0-4	3	1	L
28/10	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
17/10	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
11/10	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
19/09	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
11/09	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
04/09	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
30/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	2-3	1	5	L
21/08	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Maribor vs NK Nafta 1903?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Maribor win (58%). Probabilities: NK Maribor 58%, draw 24%, NK Nafta 1903 18%.

How many goals are expected in NK Maribor vs NK Nafta 1903?

The model expects 2.73 goals (NK Maribor 1.82 · NK Nafta 1903 0.91), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Maribor vs NK Nafta 1903?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.