Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 21/11, 18:00

Prediction: NK Celje vs NK Brinje Grosuplje

Team pages: NK Celje · NK Brinje Grosuplje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

NK Celje1.98

NK Brinje Grosuplje0.81

1X2

64% 22% 14%

NK Celje Draw NK Brinje Grosuplje

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Celje 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWDDWW

NK Brinje Grosuplje 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLDDW

Head-to-head

NK Celje 0–1 NK Brinje Grosuplje (1 last)

NK Brinje Grosuplje4-1NK Celje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Celje 1547 · NK Brinje Grosuplje 1493

	NK Celje	Draw	NK Brinje Grosuplje
Our model	64%	23%	13%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Celje (rating 1547 vs 1493).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Celje	NK Brinje Grosuplje
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.10

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.46
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.62 ★
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +14’	1.40	4.10	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:14 +4’	1.46	4.62	5.99

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Celje 0–0–1 NK Brinje Grosuplje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Brinje Grosuplje	4-1 HT 1-1	NK Celje

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Koper	15	8	5	2	26	13	29
2	NK Maribor	15	6	6	3	22	16	24
3	NK Bravo	15	6	5	4	17	16	23
4	NK Celje	14	6	5	3	19	13	23
5	Olimpija Ljubljana	15	6	5	4	17	13	23
6	NK Nafta 1903	15	5	4	6	19	21	19
7	Aluminij Kidricevo	15	4	5	6	21	14	17
8	NK Brinje Grosuplje	15	4	4	7	16	25	16
9	NS Mura	15	2	8	5	15	26	14
10	NK Radomlje	14	1	5	8	16	31	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Celje	NK Brinje Grosuplje
NK Radomlje	2-1 W	2-1 W
NK Nafta 1903	4-0 W	1-2 L
Olimpija Ljubljana	1-1 D	0-3 L
NK Maribor	0-0 D	1-2 L
Aluminij Kidricevo	1-0 W	1-0 W
NS Mura	0-0 D	0-0 D
NK Bravo	1-2 L	0-0 D
FC Koper	0-1 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: NK Celje (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Celje

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
01/11	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	3-0	4-0	6	1	W
28/10	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
18/10	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
10/10	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
20/09	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/09	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
06/09	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
02/09	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	2-0	14	4	W
30/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-4	6	3	L

NK Brinje Grosuplje

LWLLWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
01/11	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
29/10	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
18/10	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-2	0-5	2	5	L
11/10	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
20/09	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
11/09	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
05/09	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
30/08	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	4-1	1	3	W
21/08	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	2-1	2-4	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Celje vs NK Brinje Grosuplje?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Celje win (64%). Probabilities: NK Celje 64%, draw 22%, NK Brinje Grosuplje 14%.

How many goals are expected in NK Celje vs NK Brinje Grosuplje?

The model expects 2.79 goals (NK Celje 1.98 · NK Brinje Grosuplje 0.81), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Celje vs NK Brinje Grosuplje?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.