Football · Peru Campeonato Nacional Women · 14/11, 21:00

Prediction: Universitario de Deportes (W) vs Alianza Lima (W)

Team pages: Universitario de Deportes (W) · Alianza Lima (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Universitario de Deportes (W)1.86

Alianza Lima (W)1.34

1X2

48% 25% 26%

Universitario de Deportes (W) Draw Alianza Lima (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Universitario de Deportes (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Alianza Lima (W) 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Universitario de Deportes (W) 2–1–3 Alianza Lima (W) (6 last)

Universitario de Deportes (W)2-3Alianza Lima (W)
Universitario de Deportes (W)3-0Alianza Lima (W)
Alianza Lima (W)1-0Universitario de Deportes (W)
Alianza Lima (W)1-3Universitario de Deportes (W)
Universitario de Deportes (W)2-2Alianza Lima (W)
Alianza Lima (W)3-1Universitario de Deportes (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universitario de Deportes (W) 1545 · Alianza Lima (W) 1588

	Universitario de Deportes (W)	Draw	Alianza Lima (W)
Our model	49%	25%	27%
Market	48%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Lima (W) (rating 1545 vs 1588).
H2H favours Alianza Lima (W): 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universitario de Deportes (W)	Alianza Lima (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	4.3 / 1.2	2.2 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	50/33/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 1.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
21:44 +23’	1.80	3.50	3.50
23:04 +2’	1.85▲	3.50	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario de Deportes (W) 2–1–3 Alianza Lima (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	Universitario de Deportes (W)	2-3 HT 0-1	Alianza Lima (W)
05/07/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	Universitario de Deportes (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Alianza Lima (W)
27/06/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	Alianza Lima (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Universitario de Deportes (W)
17/05/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	Alianza Lima (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	Universitario de Deportes (W)
13/12/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	Universitario de Deportes (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Alianza Lima (W)
07/12/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	Alianza Lima (W)	3-1 HT 2-0	Universitario de Deportes (W)

Standings · Peru Campeonato Nacional Women · Liga Femenina 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima (W)	10	10	0	0	33	2	30
2	Universitario de Deportes (W)	10	8	1	1	48	9	25
3	FBC Melgar (W)	10	7	0	3	28	10	21
4	Sporting Cristal (W)	10	7	0	3	24	10	21
5	Atletico Andahuaylas (W)	10	5	2	3	15	12	17
6	Carlos Mannucci (W)	10	4	1	5	15	30	13
7	FC Killas (W)	10	4	0	6	8	20	12
8	Flamengo FBC (W)	10	2	1	7	8	20	7
9	Yanapuma (W)	10	2	0	8	14	37	6
10	Defensores Del Ilucan (W)	10	2	0	8	8	39	6
11	UNSAAC (W)	10	1	1	8	10	22	4
12	Biavo FC (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universitario de Deportes (W)	Alianza Lima (W)
FBC Melgar (W)	7-0 W	1-0 W
UNSAAC (W)	5-2 W	2-0 W
Flamengo FBC (W)	5-0 W	2-0 W
Yanapuma (W)	9-3 W	2-0 W
Sporting Cristal (W)	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Universitario de Deportes (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universitario de Deportes (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	–	7-0	–	–	W
01/11	FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	UNSAAC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	–	5-2	–	–	W
19/09	FC Killas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	4-0	3	1	W
13/09	Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	–	5-0	–	–	W
05/09	Yanapuma (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	–	9-3	–	–	W
30/08	Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	0-1	2-3	4	5	L
23/08	Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	–	6-0	4	1	W
15/08	FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	2-0	12	5	W
09/08	Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	–	3-1	–	–	W

Alianza Lima (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
03/11	Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
27/09	FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/09	Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
06/09	Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
30/08	Universitario de Deportes (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	1-0	3-2	3	5	W
23/08	Carlos Mannucci (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	–	6-0	6	3	W
16/08	UNSAAC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
09/08	Yanapuma (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	–	2-0	9	1	W
06/08	Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universitario de Deportes (W) vs Alianza Lima (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universitario de Deportes (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Universitario de Deportes (W) 48%, draw 25%, Alianza Lima (W) 26%.

How many goals are expected in Universitario de Deportes (W) vs Alianza Lima (W)?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Universitario de Deportes (W) 1.86 · Alianza Lima (W) 1.34), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universitario de Deportes (W) vs Alianza Lima (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.