Football · Peru Campeonato Nacional Women · 09/11, 21:00
Prediction: Universitario de Deportes (W) vs FBC Melgar (W)
Team pages: Universitario de Deportes (W) · FBC Melgar (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.96Total
Universitario de Deportes (W)2.98
FBC Melgar (W)0.98
1X2
Universitario de Deportes (W)
Draw
FBC Melgar (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-0 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Universitario de Deportes (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
FBC Melgar (W)
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universitario de Deportes (W)
4–2
FBC Melgar (W)
(6 last)
- FBC Melgar (W)3-0Universitario de Deportes (W)
- Universitario de Deportes (W)2-0FBC Melgar (W)
- FBC Melgar (W)0-3Universitario de Deportes (W)
- FBC Melgar (W)1-0Universitario de Deportes (W)
- Universitario de Deportes (W)4-0FBC Melgar (W)
- FBC Melgar (W)0-2Universitario de Deportes (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universitario de Deportes (W) 1537 · FBC Melgar (W) 1575
| Universitario de Deportes (W) | Draw | FBC Melgar (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 85% | 10% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Universitario de Deportes (W): 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universitario de Deportes (W) | FBC Melgar (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.6 / 1.2 | 3.5 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.3 | 2.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/67/33% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.4 | 1.3 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario de Deportes (W) 4–0–2 FBC Melgar (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | FBC Melgar (W) | 3-0 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
| 15/08/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FBC Melgar (W) |
| 02/05/26 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | FBC Melgar (W) | 0-3 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
| 27/09/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | FBC Melgar (W) | 1-0 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
| 15/06/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | FBC Melgar (W) |
| 11/06/25 Peru Campeonato Nacional Women | FBC Melgar (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Universitario de Deportes (W) |
Standings · Peru Campeonato Nacional Women · Liga Femenina 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima (W) | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 30 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes (W) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 48 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar (W) | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 10 | 21 |
| 4 | Sporting Cristal (W) | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 10 | 21 |
| 5 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Carlos Mannucci (W) | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 30 | 13 |
| 7 | FC Killas (W) | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 12 |
| 8 | Flamengo FBC (W) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 7 |
| 9 | Yanapuma (W) | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 37 | 6 |
| 10 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 6 |
| 11 | UNSAAC (W) | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 22 | 4 |
| 12 | Biavo FC (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universitario de Deportes (W) | FBC Melgar (W) |
|---|---|---|
| UNSAAC (W) | 5-2 W | 3-1 W |
| FC Killas (W) | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Flamengo FBC (W) | 5-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Alianza Lima (W) | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Defensores Del Ilucan (W) | 6-0 W | 8-0 W |
| Atletico Andahuaylas (W) | 0-0 D | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universitario de Deportes (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 26/09 | UNSAAC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 19/09 | FC Killas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | Yanapuma (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 9-3 | – | – | W |
| 30/08 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 6-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | FBC Melgar (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Sporting Cristal (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
FBC Melgar (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Universitario de Deportes (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/10 | Carlos Mannucci (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
6-0 | 8-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 27/09 | Alianza Lima (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/09 | Carlos Mannucci (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 11/09 | Atletico Andahuaylas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
4-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | FC Killas (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/08 | UNSAAC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/08 | Flamengo FBC (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Universitario de Deportes (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 10/08 | Defensores Del Ilucan (W) Peru Campeonato Nacional Women |
– | 8-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universitario de Deportes (W) vs FBC Melgar (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Universitario de Deportes (W) win (81%). Probabilities: Universitario de Deportes (W) 81%, draw 12%, FBC Melgar (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Universitario de Deportes (W) vs FBC Melgar (W)?
The model expects 3.96 goals (Universitario de Deportes (W) 2.98 · FBC Melgar (W) 0.98), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Universitario de Deportes (W) vs FBC Melgar (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.