Football · Peru Liga 2 · 15/11, 16:45

Prediction: CD Universidad San Martin vs Union Comercio

Team pages: CD Universidad San Martin · Union Comercio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

CD Universidad San Martin1.43

Union Comercio0.94

1X2

48% 28% 24%

CD Universidad San Martin Draw Union Comercio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Universidad San Martin 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWWLW

Union Comercio 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLWLWDLD

Head-to-head

CD Universidad San Martin 2–2–2 Union Comercio (6 last)

Union Comercio1-0CD Universidad San Martin
CD Universidad San Martin0-1Union Comercio
Union Comercio1-2CD Universidad San Martin
CD Universidad San Martin1-1Union Comercio
CD Universidad San Martin3-0Union Comercio
Union Comercio0-0CD Universidad San Martin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Universidad San Martin 1521 · Union Comercio 1511

	CD Universidad San Martin	Draw	Union Comercio
Our model	47%	29%	23%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Universidad San Martin	Union Comercio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	5 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 16:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	2.90 → 3.60▲	Pinn 4.29 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:23 +7’	2.15	3.25	2.90
06:58 +8’	2.30▲	3.25	2.70▼
15:18 +24’	2.10▼	3.20▼	3.00▲
16:44	1.83▼	3.30▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:04 +3’	2.39	2.97	2.75
13:14 +3’	2.45▲	2.84▼	2.80▲
15:31 +11’	2.38▼	2.88▲	2.96▲
16:37 +8’	1.78▼	3.21▲	4.29▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Universidad San Martin 2–2–2 Union Comercio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Peru Liga 2	Union Comercio	1-0 HT 1-0	CD Universidad San Martin
23/05/26 Peru Liga 2	CD Universidad San Martin	0-1 HT 0-0	Union Comercio
01/06/25 Peru Liga 2	Union Comercio	1-2 HT 0-1	CD Universidad San Martin
12/04/25 Peru Liga 2	CD Universidad San Martin	1-1 HT 0-0	Union Comercio
31/08/19 Peru Liga 1	CD Universidad San Martin	3-0 HT 0-1	Union Comercio
16/03/19 Peru Liga 1	Union Comercio	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Universidad San Martin

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Main Round, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Carlos Manucci	6	3	3	0	15	5	14
2	CD Universidad San Martin	6	4	0	2	8	11	12
3	Bentin Tacna Heroica	6	1	3	2	6	8	7
4	Alianza Universidad	6	0	2	4	5	10	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Universidad San Martin	Union Comercio
Carlos Manucci	1-2 L	0-0 D
Club Ada Jaen	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Universidad San Martin

WWLDLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	11	5	W
25/10	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-2	1	9	L
18/10	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/10	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
06/10	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
26/09	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-3	0-7	2	2	L
13/09	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
06/09	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
29/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
16/08	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	2-0	3-1	1	6	W

Union Comercio

DDWLWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	1-2	3-3	4	7	D
26/10	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
18/10	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	1-1	1-1	3	9	D
12/10	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	2-0	5-0	4	3	W
06/10	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	1-1	1-4	1	13	L
27/09	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
13/09	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
06/09	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
30/08	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Universidad San Martin vs Union Comercio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Universidad San Martin win (48%). Probabilities: CD Universidad San Martin 48%, draw 28%, Union Comercio 24%.

How many goals are expected in CD Universidad San Martin vs Union Comercio?

The model expects 2.37 goals (CD Universidad San Martin 1.43 · Union Comercio 0.94), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Universidad San Martin vs Union Comercio?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.