Football · Uruguay League Women · 08/11, 19:00
Prediction: Penarol (W) vs Liverpool Montevideo (W)
Team pages: Penarol (W) · Liverpool Montevideo (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.7Total
Penarol (W)2.85
Liverpool Montevideo (W)0.85
1X2
Penarol (W)
Draw
Liverpool Montevideo (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol (W)
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Liverpool Montevideo (W)
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol (W)
5–1–0
Liverpool Montevideo (W)
(6 last)
- Penarol (W)2-1Liverpool Montevideo (W)
- Liverpool Montevideo (W)0-1Penarol (W)
- Liverpool Montevideo (W)1-1Penarol (W)
- Penarol (W)3-0Liverpool Montevideo (W)
- Liverpool Montevideo (W)0-3Penarol (W)
- Penarol (W)4-1Liverpool Montevideo (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Penarol (W) 1630 · Liverpool Montevideo (W) 1475
| Penarol (W) | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 81% | 13% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol (W) (rating 1630 vs 1475).
- H2H favours Penarol (W): 5-1-0.
- High corners: 15.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Penarol (W) | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 5.4 / 0.3 | 2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/50/25% | 67/0/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 5 / 9.2 | 2 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol (W) 5–1–0 Liverpool Montevideo (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 Uruguay League Women | Penarol (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) |
| 24/05/26 Uruguay League Women | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Penarol (W) |
| 21/09/25 Uruguay League Women | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Penarol (W) |
| 17/08/25 Uruguay League Women | Penarol (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) |
| 04/05/25 Uruguay League Women | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Penarol (W) |
| 05/05/24 Uruguay League Women | Penarol (W) | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) |
Standings · Uruguay League Women · Primera Division, Women 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol (W) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 2 | 27 |
| 2 | Montevideo City Torque (W) | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 3 | 24 |
| 3 | Nacional De Football (W) | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 48 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Defensor Sporting (W) | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 13 |
| 6 | Danubio (W) | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 13 |
| 7 | FC San Jacinto (W) | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 7 |
| 8 | Canadian SC (W) | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 7 |
| 9 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 69 | 4 |
| 10 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Penarol (W) | Liverpool Montevideo (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional De Football (W) | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| FC San Jacinto (W) | 9-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Canadian SC (W) | 11-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Juventud de Las Piedras (W) | 17-0 W | 8-0 W |
| Montevideo City Torque (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Montevideo Wanderers (W) | 7-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Danubio (W) | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Defensor Sporting (W) | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 7 W 1 D 0 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol (W) (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 20/09 | FC San Jacinto (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 9-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 13/09 | Canadian SC (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 11-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 17-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/08 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Liverpool Montevideo (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Liverpool Montevideo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | Defensor Sporting (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 06/09 | FC San Jacinto (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 30/08 | Canadian SC (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/08 | Nacional De Football (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Montevideo Wanderers (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/08 | Penarol (W) Uruguay League Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 05/08 | Danubio (W) Uruguay League Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Juventud de Las Piedras (W) Uruguay League Women |
– | 8-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | Montevideo City Torque (W) Uruguay League Women |
0-3 | 0-6 | 7 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol (W) vs Liverpool Montevideo (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Penarol (W) win (79%). Probabilities: Penarol (W) 79%, draw 14%, Liverpool Montevideo (W) 7%.
How many goals are expected in Penarol (W) vs Liverpool Montevideo (W)?
The model expects 3.7 goals (Penarol (W) 2.85 · Liverpool Montevideo (W) 0.85), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Penarol (W) vs Liverpool Montevideo (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.