Football · Bolivia Copa Division Profesional · 21/10, 01:00
Prediction: Independiente Petrolero vs Club Aurora
Team pages: Independiente Petrolero · Club Aurora
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Independiente Petrolero1.64
Club Aurora1.51
1X2
Independiente Petrolero
Draw
Club Aurora
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Petrolero
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Club Aurora
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Petrolero
3–1–2
Club Aurora
(6 last)
- Independiente Petrolero1-1Club Aurora
- Club Aurora2-3Independiente Petrolero
- Independiente Petrolero2-4Club Aurora
- Club Aurora2-0Independiente Petrolero
- Independiente Petrolero2-1Club Aurora
- Club Aurora2-3Independiente Petrolero
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Petrolero 1504 · Club Aurora 1529
| Independiente Petrolero | Draw | Club Aurora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Independiente Petrolero: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Petrolero | Club Aurora | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.1 | 1.2 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Petrolero 3–1–2 Club Aurora
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/26 Bolivia Primera Division | Independiente Petrolero | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Club Aurora |
| 04/11/25 Bolivia Primera Division | Club Aurora | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Independiente Petrolero |
| 27/05/25 Bolivia Primera Division | Independiente Petrolero | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Club Aurora |
| 31/10/24 Bolivia Clausura | Club Aurora | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Petrolero |
| 21/07/24 Bolivia Clausura | Independiente Petrolero | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Club Aurora |
| 19/04/24 Bolivia Apertura | Club Aurora | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Independiente Petrolero |
Standings · Bolivia Copa Division Profesional · Copa Bolivia 2026, Group D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolivar | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Independiente Petrolero | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 3 | GV San Jose | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
| 4 | Blooming | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Petrolero
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | GV San Jose Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/10 | Bolivar Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 02/10 | Blooming Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/09 | GV San Jose Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/09 | Real Tomayapo Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
4-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/09 | Bolivar Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Real Tomayapo Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 20/08 | Blooming Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
1-2 | 5-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/11 | Nacional Potosi Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/10 | Real Tomayapo Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
2-0 | 6-3 | 4 | 1 | W |
Club Aurora
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/10 | Real Potosi Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 30/09 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 25/09 | Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
0-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/09 | Real Potosi Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 18/08 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 16/11 | The Strongest Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 13/11 | The Strongest Bolivia Copa Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Petrolero vs Club Aurora?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Petrolero win (40%). Probabilities: Independiente Petrolero 40%, draw 26%, Club Aurora 34%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Petrolero vs Club Aurora?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Independiente Petrolero 1.64 · Club Aurora 1.51), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Petrolero vs Club Aurora?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.