Football · Lebanon League · 08/10, 20:45

Prediction: Al Ansar Beirut vs Sagesse SC

Team pages: Al Ansar Beirut · Sagesse SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Al Ansar Beirut2.2

Sagesse SC0.86

1X2

67% 20% 13%

Al Ansar Beirut Draw Sagesse SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Ansar Beirut 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWDDWW

Sagesse SC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDWWL

Head-to-head

Al Ansar Beirut 6–0 Sagesse SC (6 last)

Al Ansar Beirut2-0Sagesse SC
Sagesse SC1-4Al Ansar Beirut
Sagesse SC0-2Al Ansar Beirut
Sagesse SC0-2Al Ansar Beirut
Al Ansar Beirut2-0Sagesse SC
Sagesse SC1-3Al Ansar Beirut

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Ansar Beirut 1627 · Sagesse SC 1487

	Al Ansar Beirut	Draw	Sagesse SC
Our model	67%	21%	12%
Market	67%	20%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Ansar Beirut (rating 1627 vs 1487).
H2H favours Al Ansar Beirut: 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Ansar Beirut	Sagesse SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.8	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/43/14%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.9	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +7’	1.33	4.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Ansar Beirut 6–0–0 Sagesse SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Lebanon League	Al Ansar Beirut	2-0 HT 1-0	Sagesse SC
27/09/25 Lebanon League	Sagesse SC	1-4 HT 0-1	Al Ansar Beirut
02/07/25 Lebanon League	Sagesse SC	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Ansar Beirut
17/05/25 Lebanon League	Sagesse SC	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Ansar Beirut
20/04/25 Lebanon League	Al Ansar Beirut	2-0	Sagesse SC
03/03/25 Lebanon League	Sagesse SC	1-3 HT 0-2	Al Ansar Beirut

Standings · Lebanon League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Ahed	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Akhaa Ahli Aley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Ansar Beirut	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sagesse SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Mabarrah	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Safa Beirut	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tadamon Sour	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jwaya FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Nejmeh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Reyady Abaseya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shabab Al-Sahel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AC Tripoli	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Ansar Beirut	Sagesse SC
Al Nejmeh	2-1 W	0-1 L
Jwaya FC	2-1 W	3-3 D
Al Ahed	1-1 D	0-1 L
Tadamon Sour	3-0 W	4-1 W
Al-Mabarrah	7-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Al Ansar Beirut (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Ansar Beirut

WWWWDWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	1-1	2-1	0	7	W
28/07	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
24/07	Al Ahed Lebanon League	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
20/07	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/07	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/07	Al Ahed Lebanon League	–	3-3	–	–	D
03/07	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
29/06	Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League	4-0	7-0	5	4	W
24/06	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	0-0	3-0	7	5	W
20/06	Al Ahed Lebanon League	3-0	3-1	9	4	W

Sagesse SC

WLLWWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	Al Nejmeh Lebanon League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
29/06	Tadamon Sour Lebanon League	0-0	4-1	6	0	W
25/06	Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League	4-1	4-2	7	1	W
20/06	Jwaya FC Lebanon League	2-2	3-3	5	6	D
16/06	Al Ahed Lebanon League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
12/06	Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League	1-0	1-0	0	0	W
16/02	Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League	2-1	2-1	6	2	W
06/02	Safa Beirut Lebanon League	0-0	1-2	6	1	L
30/01	Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
23/01	Racing Beirut Lebanon League	2-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Ansar Beirut vs Sagesse SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Ansar Beirut win (67%). Probabilities: Al Ansar Beirut 67%, draw 20%, Sagesse SC 13%.

How many goals are expected in Al Ansar Beirut vs Sagesse SC?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Al Ansar Beirut 2.2 · Sagesse SC 0.86), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Ansar Beirut vs Sagesse SC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.